Palm Beach Plan · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Manufactured · 226 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to this exquisite home in Crystal Lake Zephyrhills, a premier 55+ community offering resort-style amenities and an inviting neighborhood atmosphere. This beautifully decorated and meticulously maintained residence blends timeless elegance with modern comfort, providing a truly exceptional living experience. The home boasts a spacious, light-filled open floor plan with soaring ceilings, large windows, and tasteful designer touches throughout. A gourmet kitchen with granite countertops, upgraded appliances, and abundant storage is ideal for any home chef, while the generously sized bedrooms offer comfort and serene views. Renovated bathrooms feature modern

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Renovated bathrooms
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BACK PORCH
• STORAGE SHED
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 4604 Lake Crystal Blvd, Zephyrhills, FL 33541; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $149,900

Exterior

• Home design: Palm Beach plan (new construction plan); Single-story (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open plan living area (1,372 total living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $149,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $170,128.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.84%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,128
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4618 Newcomb Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-0%)	6mo	$115,000	$84	76
35021 Mcculloughs Leap	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-2%)	4mo	$167,000	$124	71
4100 Carefree Way	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (-5%)	1mo	$139,500	$107	63
35020 Colony Hills Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+4%)	9mo	$175,000	$122	59
34911 Buck Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+9%)	12mo	$120,000	$80	59
34620 Dustin Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+10%)	15mo	$278,000	$184	53
35139 Wagner Way	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-4%)	8mo	$169,900	$129	51
35042 Colony Hills Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-9%)	13mo	$170,000	$136	42
35026 Colony Hills Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,212 (-12%)	11mo	$152,000	$125	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,698
• Equity at exit: $25,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $11,870
• Equity at exit: $14,710

Cash invested: $47,636 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$892
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$213 /mo · $2,552/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $170,128

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,532
• Closing costs: $5,104
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34652 Blue Starling St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	4d	1	0.42mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	24d	1	0.45mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	0.48mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,200	$1.33	4d	1	0.49mi
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	24d	1	0.50mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	24d	1	0.50mi
34796 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,799	$1.14	19d	1	0.50mi
34873 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,749	$1.11	2d	1	0.53mi
5019 Coopers Hawk Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,699	$1.17	10d	1	0.54mi
34747 Double Eagle Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$1,650	$1.26	17d	1	0.60mi
34325 Smart Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,065	$1.37	3d	1	0.73mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	12d	71	0.75mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	0.96mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,945	$2.88	2d	46	1.02mi
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,988	$1.92	2d	21	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 208 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,530
• − Property taxes: −$2,552
• − Insurance: −$851
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,949
• Taxable income: $3,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$749
• After-tax cash flow: $4,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B