738 E 11th St · Erie, PA 16503

$15,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1900 6,534 sqft lot $9/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold As is. Includes parcel # 15020035023600 Handyman Special

Key facts

• Ample parking
• Double lot
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-2

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Composition roof; Asphalt construction material; Built with a partial basement foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $857 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 74.8% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $964 of equity ($104 loan paydown + $860 appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $15k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $14,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 74.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 244.80%
• DSCR: 11.89
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,777
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -72.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
755 E 11th St	0.05mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,736 (+0%)	5mo	$37,000	$21	88
903 Wayne St	0.13mi	4/1.5	1,932 (+12%)	4mo	$128,000	$66	70
610 E 11th St	0.18mi	4/1.0	1,513 (-13%)	4mo	$85,000	$56	67
725 E 11th St	0.05mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,568 (-10%)	13mo	$72,000	$46	64
944 E 10th St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-11%)	1mo	$45,000	$29	59
422 E 14th St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,632 (-6%)	6mo	$87,500	$54	58
1337 E 8th St	0.72mi	4/1.0	1,872 (+8%)	12mo	$85,000	$45	43
1129 E 4th St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,540 (-11%)	3mo	$115,000	$75	41
1139 E Lake Rd	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+10%)	16mo	$94,900	$50	37
348 E 4th St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,540 (-11%)	11mo	$135,000	$88	34
318 Parade St	0.72mi	4/1.5	1,480 (-15%)	9mo	$135,000	$91	32
524 E 2nd St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,496 (-14%)	11mo	$75,000	$50	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.97×
• Total profit: $58,674
• Equity at exit: $9,175

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.94×
• Total profit: $129,951
• Equity at exit: $16,423

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $123/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $120

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 E 4th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.52mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	44d	1	0.75mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	44d	1	0.92mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $15,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $15,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $15,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $15,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $15,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $15,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $15,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $15,000 Active 175-char remark
19. 2022-02-23
    soldstatus $6,000
20. 2019-08-21
    soldstatus $4,000 62-char remark

    Show marketing remark (62 chars)

    Sold As is. Includes parcel # 15020035023600 Handyman Special

21. 2019-08-21
    soldstatus $4,000

    Show marketing remark (62 chars)

    Sold As is. Includes parcel # 15020035023600 Handyman Special

22. 2019-04-01
    listed $4,000
23. 2019-03-26
    listed $8,000 62-char remark

    Show marketing remark (62 chars)

    Sold As is. Includes parcel # 15020035023600 Handyman Special

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $123 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $180 · $15/mo
• Expected delta: +$57/yr (+$5/mo · 46.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$123
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $10,672
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,561
• After-tax cash flow: $7,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+87.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $15,000 GEBOR
• 2022-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-21 Sold (MLS) $4,000 West Penn MLS
• 2019-08-21 Sold (MLS) $4,000 GEBOR
• 2019-04-01 Listed $4,000 West Penn MLS
• 2019-03-26 Listed $8,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

-14.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $123 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.