459 East Ave · Lockport, NY 14094

$119,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1911 4,356 sqft lot Est $230k · 48% under ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 4-bedroom, 1-bath home ready for its next chapter. This property features a flexible layout, window unit cooling, and a heating system (potentially oil). The roof has received recent attention. The kitchen offers Formica countertops, awaiting your personal touch. Bathrooms are ready for your updates. Discover the potential of hardwood floors under existing carpeting and linoleum. A finished attic provides great bonus space or a possible additional bedroom. Includes an unfinished basement for ample storage, a detached 1.5-car garage, and the benefit of no HOA.

Key facts

• Flexible layout
• Heating system
• Window unit cooling

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• WINDOW UNIT COOLING
• HEATING SYSTEM
• RECENT ATTENTION ROOF
• FORMICA COUNTERTOPS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.46%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Wilson Pkwy	0.25mi	4/1.5	1,728 (-2%)	4mo	$185,000	$107	79
603 Walnut St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,718 (-3%)	2mo	$225,000	$131	75
33 Irving St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,682 (-5%)	7mo	$150,000	$89	70
20 Morton Ave	0.19mi	4/1.5	1,578 (-11%)	3mo	$205,000	$130	69
391 Walnut St	0.53mi	4/1.0	1,856 (+5%)	2mo	$180,400	$97	65
24 Grasmere Rd	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,764 (-0%)	0mo	$350,000	$198	61
29 Grove Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,620 (-8%)	4mo	$211,500	$131	61
266 Chestnut St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,876 (+6%)	7mo	$215,000	$115	59
756 Walnut St	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,564 (-12%)	4mo	$235,000	$150	53
287 South St	0.61mi	4/1.5	1,596 (-10%)	7mo	$128,500	$81	48
105 Park Lane Cir	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,886 (+7%)	6mo	$255,000	$135	46
44 Erie St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,528 (-14%)	3mo	$180,000	$118	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,292
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $25,872
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,319/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $299	+0% $265	+5% $231	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $134	-5% $200	+0% $265	+5% $330	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $295	base $265	+0.5pp $234	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-18
   soldstatus $115,000
2. 2025-12-17
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-10
   price $119,900
4. 2025-11-24
   price $129,900
5. 2025-11-13
   listed $139,900 Active
6. 2025-10-05
   historical
7. 2025-09-14
   listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,319 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,319 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$4,319
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$362
• After-tax cash flow: $2,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lockport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3669

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 50,153
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-28.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-05 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-14 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,319 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.