None · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · Land · 141 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot $182/sqft · 6% above area Est $283k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Take advantage of this incredible under construction new HOME !!!! Almost Ready!!!!! 4 bedroom, 2-bathroom, , located in the growing community of Marion Oaks, Ocala. Inside, you'll find a modern layout filled with natural, quality finishes, spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a 2-car garage with floor upgrade, and a generous backyard — NO HOA. Don’t miss whether you're a first-time homebuyer or investor opportunity to own this home.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• No hoa
• Generous backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,436 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,165
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 5.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-65,978
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-95,542
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $948/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,249

Max offer price $268,564

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17000 SW 41st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,000	$1.22	13d	1	0.43mi
393 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	13d	1	0.45mi
17191 SW 40th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	13d	1	0.46mi
3540 SW 163rd Place Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,600	$1.32	21d	1	0.51mi
3022 SW 168th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,800	$1.22	13d	1	0.57mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	13d	1	0.57mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	21d	1	0.62mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	13d	1	0.63mi
267 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,799	$1.14	13d	1	0.65mi
4473 SW 168th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,000	$1.11	13d	1	0.66mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	13d	1	0.68mi
4513 SW 170th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	21d	1	0.71mi
4535 SW 172nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,150	$1.15	13d	1	0.75mi
16170 SW 33rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	13d	1	0.80mi
16090 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,950	$1.08	13d	1	0.85mi
16910 SW 27th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,550	$1.37	21d	1	0.85mi
16100 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	13d	1	0.85mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	21d	1	0.86mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	13d	1	0.97mi
16094 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.97mi
16090 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.99mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	1.02mi
550 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,850	$1.17	13d	1	1.02mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	13d	1	1.04mi
15885 SW 35th Court Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,550	$1.29	21d	1	1.09mi
357 Marion Oaks Blvd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,695	$1.41	13d	1	1.10mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	13d	1	1.12mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	21d	1	1.12mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	13d	1	1.13mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	1.16mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	13d	1	1.16mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	21d	1	1.17mi
15755 SW 33rd Avenue Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	21d	1	1.21mi
17490 SW 27th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	13d	1	1.30mi
17399 SW 25th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,800	$1.37	21d	1	1.32mi
16846 SW 22nd Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	13d	1	1.32mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	13d	1	1.38mi
15712 SW 37th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,850	$1.02	21d	1	1.38mi
2220 SW 169th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	21d	1	1.39mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $299,900 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Under Construction. Take advantage of this incredible under construction new HOME !!!! Almost Ready!!!!! 4 bedroom, 2-bathroom, , located in the growing community of Marion Oaks, Ocala. Inside, you'll find a modern layout filled with natural, quality finishes, spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a 2-car garage with floor upgrade, and a generous backyard — NO HOA. Don’t miss whether you're a first-time homebuyer or investor opportunity to own this home.

16. 2026-01-28
    listed $279,900 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Under Construction. Take advantage of this incredible under construction new HOME !!!! Almost Ready!!!!! 4 bedroom, 2-bathroom, , located in the growing community of Marion Oaks, Ocala. Inside, you'll find a modern layout filled with natural, quality finishes, spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a 2-car garage with floor upgrade, and a generous backyard — NO HOA. Don’t miss whether you're a first-time homebuyer or investor opportunity to own this home.

17. 2023-11-21
    historical
18. 2023-07-22
    price $58,000
19. 2023-06-28
    price $38,000
20. 2023-03-21
    price $31,000
21. 2023-02-08
    price $27,000
22. 2023-01-02
    price $29,000
23. 2022-11-21
    price $31,000
24. 2022-11-14
    price $33,000
25. 2022-09-23
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,542/yr (+$128/mo · 162.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$948
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+756.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-22 Price Changed $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-28 Price Changed $38,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-21 Price Changed $31,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-08 Price Changed $27,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-02 Price Changed $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-21 Price Changed $31,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-14 Price Changed $33,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-23 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $948 · +27.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.