32787 Jagadon Rd · Lucerne Valley, CA 92356

$245,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,486 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1954 5.00 ac lot $165/sqft · 20% below area Est $305k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to wide open space and privacy with this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home located in the peaceful desert area of Lucerne Valley. The home offers 1,486 square feet of interior living space and sits on an expansive 5-acre lot, providing incredible panoramic views of the surrounding desert and mountains. This secluded property offers the perfect opportunity to create your own private getaway while enjoying the tranquility and open space the High Desert has to offer. The home is all electric and features a brand-new whole-house water pump for added convenience and efficiency. The primary bedroom includes a double mirrored closet, offering ample storage and a spacious feel. Outside, the property includes three storage sheds in the backyard, providing plenty of room for tools, equipment, or recreational gear. With five acres of land, there is endless potential to design your ideal outdoor space or desert retreat. For outdoor enthusiasts and off-road lovers, the surrounding area offers countless trails to explore and adventure through. The property is located near the famous King of the Hammers, a major off-road racing event that draws thousands of visitors and off-road enthusiasts to the area each year. Conveniently located just over 20 miles from Big Bear Lake, under 40 miles from Barstow, and just over 40 miles from Phelan, this property offers both privacy and access to nearby destinations. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or a basecamp for desert adventures, this property is full of potential.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Convenient location
• Outdoor retreat

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• OUTDOOR RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-375/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Lucerne Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,358 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lucerne Valley Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,155 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,869
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -19.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32666 Richard St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-6%)	21mo	$204,000	$146	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $131,420
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $388,539
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92356

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,693/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,040

Max offer price $239,472

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $38	+0% $-31	+5% $-101	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-110	+0% $-31	+5% $48	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $31	base $-31	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32303 Sapphire Rd Lucerne Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,000	$1.42	0d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $245,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-04-20
    price $245,000 1553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1553 chars)

    Escape to wide open space and privacy with this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home located in the peaceful desert area of Lucerne Valley. The home offers 1,486 square feet of interior living space and sits on an expansive 5-acre lot, providing incredible panoramic views of the surrounding desert and mountains. This secluded property offers the perfect opportunity to create your own private getaway while enjoying the tranquility and open space the High Desert has to offer. The home is all electric and features a brand-new whole-house water pump for added convenience and efficiency. The primary bedroom includes a double mirrored closet, offering ample storage and a spacious feel. Outside, the property includes three storage sheds in the backyard, providing plenty of room for tools, equipment, or recreational gear. With five acres of land, there is endless potential to design your ideal outdoor space or desert retreat. For outdoor enthusiasts and off-road lovers, the surrounding area offers countless trails to explore and adventure through. The property is located near the famous King of the Hammers, a major off-road racing event that draws thousands of visitors and off-road enthusiasts to the area each year. Conveniently located just over 20 miles from Big Bear Lake, under 40 miles from Barstow, and just over 40 miles from Phelan, this property offers both privacy and access to nearby destinations. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or a basecamp for desert adventures, this property is full of potential.

14. 2026-03-09
    listed $255,000 Active 1553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1553 chars)

    Escape to wide open space and privacy with this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home located in the peaceful desert area of Lucerne Valley. The home offers 1,486 square feet of interior living space and sits on an expansive 5-acre lot, providing incredible panoramic views of the surrounding desert and mountains. This secluded property offers the perfect opportunity to create your own private getaway while enjoying the tranquility and open space the High Desert has to offer. The home is all electric and features a brand-new whole-house water pump for added convenience and efficiency. The primary bedroom includes a double mirrored closet, offering ample storage and a spacious feel. Outside, the property includes three storage sheds in the backyard, providing plenty of room for tools, equipment, or recreational gear. With five acres of land, there is endless potential to design your ideal outdoor space or desert retreat. For outdoor enthusiasts and off-road lovers, the surrounding area offers countless trails to explore and adventure through. The property is located near the famous King of the Hammers, a major off-road racing event that draws thousands of visitors and off-road enthusiasts to the area each year. Conveniently located just over 20 miles from Big Bear Lake, under 40 miles from Barstow, and just over 40 miles from Phelan, this property offers both privacy and access to nearby destinations. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or a basecamp for desert adventures, this property is full of potential.

15. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed Sale 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, located on a short dirt road, with INCREDIBLE panoramic views! This home offers just shy of 1,500 sq ft, a HUGE master with double closets, an oversized detached garage with a bonus spa room, a newer heating and cooling system, and 3 storage sheds! Everything is electric in the home, including the heating, hot water heater, dryer, range, and oven! Home is nestled right off of Crystal Creek road, is on hauled water with a new pump, and is ready for a new family to make it home! Seller is motivated!

16. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $225,000

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, located on a short dirt road, with INCREDIBLE panoramic views! This home offers just shy of 1,500 sq ft, a HUGE master with double closets, an oversized detached garage with a bonus spa room, a newer heating and cooling system, and 3 storage sheds! Everything is electric in the home, including the heating, hot water heater, dryer, range, and oven! Home is nestled right off of Crystal Creek road, is on hauled water with a new pump, and is ready for a new family to make it home! Seller is motivated!

17. 2023-03-01
    status Pending Sale 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, located on a short dirt road, with INCREDIBLE panoramic views! This home offers just shy of 1,500 sq ft, a HUGE master with double closets, an oversized detached garage with a bonus spa room, a newer heating and cooling system, and 3 storage sheds! Everything is electric in the home, including the heating, hot water heater, dryer, range, and oven! Home is nestled right off of Crystal Creek road, is on hauled water with a new pump, and is ready for a new family to make it home! Seller is motivated!

18. 2023-02-08
    listed $220,000 Active 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, located on a short dirt road, with INCREDIBLE panoramic views! This home offers just shy of 1,500 sq ft, a HUGE master with double closets, an oversized detached garage with a bonus spa room, a newer heating and cooling system, and 3 storage sheds! Everything is electric in the home, including the heating, hot water heater, dryer, range, and oven! Home is nestled right off of Crystal Creek road, is on hauled water with a new pump, and is ready for a new family to make it home! Seller is motivated!

19. 2021-12-20
    status Pending Sale
20. 2021-12-17
    historical
21. 2021-11-20
    listed $220,000 Active
22. 2014-02-27
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,693 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,693 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,693
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,106
• After-tax cash flow: $731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600015
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,341
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #12969
• State rank: #1155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lucerne Valley

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1358
• US rank: #26994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,665

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.34%
• Current HPI: 440.6077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+308.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $245,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $255,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-25 Sold (MLS) $225,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-02-08 Listed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2021-12-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-12-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-11-20 Listed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,693 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.