4853 Riverdale Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32210

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 967 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1943 Est $183k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The inviting living areas offer abundant natural light and create a warm, welcoming atmosphere throughout the home. The kitchen provides a practical setup with ample space for meal preparation and dining, while the bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. The comfortable floor plan is designed to maximize both functionality and everyday convenience, making this home a great opportunity with plenty of potential to make it your own. No FHA or VA.

Key facts

• Built 1943
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Other utilities
• Exterior features: Single-family residence used for residential purposes; No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $130k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.68%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,763
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4853 Riverdale Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	967 (0%)	0mo	$117,500	$122	100
5044 Sunderland Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	996 (+3%)	2mo	$165,000	$166	80
4916 Dundee Rd	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	898 (-7%)	7mo	$189,750	$211	76
4720 Manchester Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+10%)	10mo	$105,000	$98	66
4741 Colonial Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	920 (-5%)	13mo	$191,500	$208	57
2322 Woodridge Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	946 (-2%)	2mo	$120,000	$127	56
5250 Fremont St	0.51mi	2/1.5 (-1)	908 (-6%)	5mo	$220,000	$242	55
5213 Birkenhead Rd	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (+10%)	6mo	$201,050	$189	55
3505 Blanding Blvd	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+14%)	12mo	$95,000	$86	51
1904 Vista Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+11%)	8mo	$210,000	$196	39
5209 Appleton Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,093 (+13%)	12mo	$220,000	$201	38
5163 Lexington Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	835 (-14%)	3mo	$85,000	$102	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,804
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $19,464
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32210

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,368/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3434 Blanding Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1101	$1,800	$1.63	3d	2	0.31mi
4301 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,606	$1.54	2d	39	0.65mi
5215 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	7d	1	0.65mi
6066 Wilson Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1097	$1,800	$1.64	23d	1	0.71mi
4375 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1125	$1,536	$1.37	2d	22	0.74mi
4455 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1045	$1,599	$1.53	1d	19	0.86mi
4776 Cardinal Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	959	$1,550	$1.62	23d	1	0.88mi
5139 Camille Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,625	$1.48	1d	1	0.90mi
4343 Ortega Farms Cir Unit A Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,950	$2.44	23d	1	0.90mi
2039 Niblick Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,275	$1.51	2d	10	0.93mi
5615 San Juan Ave #208 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	23d	1	0.95mi
5821 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,330	$1.26	3d	7	1.04mi
4844 Merrimac Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,325	$1.62	23d	1	1.10mi
4608 Wheeler Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1025	$2,000	$1.95	23d	1	1.21mi
6511 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	740	$1,200	$1.62	4d	1	1.38mi
4800 Ortega Farms Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	880	$1,465	$1.66	10d	9	1.43mi
4800 Ortega Farms Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	880	$1,435	$1.63	2d	10	1.43mi
6595 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	846	$1,250	$1.48	19d	4	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2026-04-18
   historical $1,405
4. 2026-04-15
   price $1,405
5. 2026-04-14
   price $1,395
6. 2026-04-12
   price $1,400
7. 2026-04-09
   price $1,390
8. 2026-04-08
   price $1,385
9. 2026-04-06
   listed $1,380
10. 1986-04-01
    soldstatus $40,700
11. 1984-06-01
    soldstatus $35,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,368 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,368 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,368
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,957
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$470
• After-tax cash flow: $3,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,729
• Household income: $61,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3605.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.81%
• Current HPI: 281.2688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+265.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $129,900 realMLS
• 2026-04-18 Rental Removed $1,405 RENTPROGRESS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $1,405 RENTPROGRESS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $1,395 RENTPROGRESS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $1,400 RENTPROGRESS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $1,390 RENTPROGRESS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $1,385 RENTPROGRESS
• 2026-04-06 Listed for Rent $1,380 RENTPROGRESS
• 1986-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,700 Public Records
• 1984-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,368 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.