7751 Vincent Rd · Lexington, MI 48422

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2006 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HIGHEST AND BEST OFFER IS DUE BY TUESDAY, MAY 26TH, AT 3 PM. Nestled on 10 beautiful acres, this property offers the perfect setting for anyone looking to enjoy the outdoors. Approximately 75% wooded, the land is filled with mature trees and natural beauty, offering gorgeous views and a peaceful setting throughout the property. A beautiful pond just over a half acre in size features a sandy beach area, making it a great spot for swimming or relaxing. The home on the property does require repairs and updates, but the land itself is truly the highlight here. Whether you are looking for a recreational getaway, a place to build your dream home, or a property with incredible potential, this rare setting is worth a look!

Key facts

• Sandy beach area
• 75% wooded
• 10 beautiful acres

Tags

• 10 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• 75% WOODED
• MATURE TREES
• POND JUST OVER A HALF ACRE
• SANDY BEACH AREA
• GREAT SPOT FOR SWIMMING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 10 acres (lot dimensions 432 x 1009)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Other water source; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry at ground level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation; Built as a residence
• Exterior features: Deck; Pond on the property; Wooded lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Ground-level entry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.3% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#494 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Croswell-Lexington Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #239 of 540 in MI (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Sanilac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sanilac County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.51%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $7,479
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $38,970
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48422

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $843

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $460	-5% $429	+0% $398	+5% $367	+10% $335
Rent	-10% $291	-5% $344	+0% $398	+5% $451	+10% $504
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $426	base $398	+0.5pp $369	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $109,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (724 chars)

   HIGHEST AND BEST OFFER IS DUE BY TUESDAY, MAY 26TH, AT 3 PM. Nestled on 10 beautiful acres, this property offers the perfect setting for anyone looking to enjoy the outdoors. Approximately 75% wooded, the land is filled with mature trees and natural beauty, offering gorgeous views and a peaceful setting throughout the property. A beautiful pond just over a half acre in size features a sandy beach area, making it a great spot for swimming or relaxing. The home on the property does require repairs and updates, but the land itself is truly the highlight here. Whether you are looking for a recreational getaway, a place to build your dream home, or a property with incredible potential, this rare setting is worth a look!

2. 2026-05-20
   listed $109,900 Active 724-char remark

   Show marketing remark (724 chars)

   HIGHEST AND BEST OFFER IS DUE BY TUESDAY, MAY 26TH, AT 3 PM. Nestled on 10 beautiful acres, this property offers the perfect setting for anyone looking to enjoy the outdoors. Approximately 75% wooded, the land is filled with mature trees and natural beauty, offering gorgeous views and a peaceful setting throughout the property. A beautiful pond just over a half acre in size features a sandy beach area, making it a great spot for swimming or relaxing. The home on the property does require repairs and updates, but the land itself is truly the highlight here. Whether you are looking for a recreational getaway, a place to build your dream home, or a property with incredible potential, this rare setting is worth a look!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$583/yr (+$49/mo · 110.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $3,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$754
• After-tax cash flow: $4,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Croswell-Lexington Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611140
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,784
• Composite: 32.49/100
• National rank: #5707
• State rank: #239 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #14509

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,172

Population outlook (Sanilac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,948 people
• By 2030: 35,772 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 30,996 · -18.3%
• By 2050: 26,280 · -30.7%
• By 2075: 17,471 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 10,572 · -72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sanilac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.5% · R 73.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.65%
• Current HPI: 268.6695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $526 · -75.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.