4512 Wilson Dr · Metairie, LA 70003

$259,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1973 6,298 sqft lot Est $240k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

<br><br> The sunroom features a wood-burning fireplace and overlooks the backyard pool area, creating a great flex space for relaxing, entertaining, or future customization. Outside, you'll find both a pool and grassy yard space, giving you the best of both worlds. <br><br> Additional features include two separate driveways, rear yard vehicle access, a covered carport, indoor laundry, and a one-car garage. Located in an X flood zone and just a short distance from a neighborhood playground. <br><br> This sturdy brick home is ready for its next owner to bring their vision and make it their dream home!

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Open floor plan
• Double front doors

Tags

• GENEROUS YARD SPACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DOUBLE FRONT DOORS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• GAS COOKTOP
• SUNROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: In-ground pool

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-story; Average condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with average condition
• Exterior features: Concrete patio/porch; Fence; City lot; Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 106

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic; Pantry; Pull-down attic stairs; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($20/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Metairie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in LA, #261 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Jefferson Parish (suburban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #44 of 98 in LA (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 518 units permitted in Jefferson Parish in 2024 (43 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,773 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.12%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,384
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4813 Academy Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,990 (+6%)	0mo	$186,000	$93	80
4908 Pike Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,931 (+3%)	1mo	$247,500	$128	71
4709 Senac Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-8%)	2mo	$220,000	$128	67
4513 St Mary St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,817 (-3%)	1mo	$340,000	$187	62
4917 Pike Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,705 (-9%)	3mo	$395,000	$232	59
3812 Bissonet Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,765 (-6%)	0mo	$310,500	$176	59
7013 Wilty St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,036 (+8%)	1mo	$255,000	$125	58
6409 Glendale St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,599 (-15%)	3mo	$114,500	$72	57
4512 Wade St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,105 (+12%)	2mo	$263,000	$125	56
3505 Lake Trail Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,788 (-5%)	2mo	$360,000	$201	56
3312 Lake Trail Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-6%)	2mo	$270,000	$153	56
7101 Ithaca St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,670 (-11%)	1mo	$143,100	$86	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,833
• Equity at exit: $38,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-45,647
• Equity at exit: $22,437

Cash invested: $72,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70003

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,958/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,256

Max offer price $259,500

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,875
• Closing costs: $7,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4837 Academy Dr Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	1834	$3,000	$1.64	23d	1	0.23mi
4312 Tartan Dr Metairie, LA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,150	$1.43	23d	1	0.28mi
4908 Purdue Dr Metairie, LA	4.0	2.0	1846	$1,995	$1.08	4d	1	0.29mi
6301 Wilty St Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,000	$1.49	3d	1	0.30mi
6508 Wilty St Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	23d	1	0.33mi
6501 Ithaca St Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	44d	1	0.43mi
7116 Wilty St Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,300	$1.34	4d	1	0.56mi
4112 Henican Pl Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.61mi
6217 Leslie St Metairie, LA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	0.66mi
4409 Saint Martin St Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	1576	$2,100	$1.33	44d	1	0.69mi
3600 Lake Trail Dr Kenner, LA	4.0	2.5	2600	$2,800	$1.08	4d	1	0.74mi
2 Schill Ave Kenner, LA	4.0	2.0	2026	$2,500	$1.23	4d	1	0.75mi
3908 Page Dr Metairie, LA	3.0	1.5	1470	$1,850	$1.26	44d	1	0.80mi
3224 Massachusetts Ave Kenner, LA	4.0	2.0	2070	$2,750	$1.33	1d	1	0.81mi
4416 Barnett St Unit B Metairie, LA	3.0	3.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	21d	1	0.83mi
5104 W Esplanade Ave Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,675	$1.15	44d	1	0.84mi
4404 Barnett St Unit C Metairie, LA	3.0	3.5	1700	$2,100	$1.24	23d	1	0.84mi
13 Emile Ave Kenner, LA	3.0	3.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	23d	1	0.90mi
6801 Veterans Blvd Metairie, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,701	$1.73	1d	27	1.03mi
4401 Sonfield St Unit C Metairie, LA	4.0	3.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	1.14mi
4401 Sonfield St Unit D Metairie, LA	3.0	3.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	44d	1	1.14mi
4422 Lake Vista Dr Metairie, LA	2.0	2.5	2500	$2,900	$1.16	23d	1	1.15mi
61 Emile Ave Kenner, LA	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	44d	1	1.18mi
5029 Loveland St Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	4d	1	1.23mi
3245 Iowa Ave Kenner, LA	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	21d	1	1.24mi
3101 Kansas Ave Kenner, LA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	14d	1	1.28mi
53 Antigua Dr Unit D Kenner, LA	2.0	1.5	1325	$1,500	$1.13	23d	1	1.28mi
3816 Lemon St Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	23d	1	1.35mi
4401 Laudun St Metairie, LA	4.0	2.5	2077	$2,500	$1.20	4d	1	1.37mi
4400 Lefkoe St Metairie, LA	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,200	$1.21	14d	1	1.45mi
2921 Indiana Ave Unit 3 Kenner, LA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,395	$1.07	3d	1	1.45mi
4318 Lime St Metairie, LA	3.0	2.5	1766	$1,700	$0.96	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $259,500 Active

   Show marketing remark (606 chars)

   <br><br> The sunroom features a wood-burning fireplace and overlooks the backyard pool area, creating a great flex space for relaxing, entertaining, or future customization. Outside, you'll find both a pool and grassy yard space, giving you the best of both worlds. <br><br> Additional features include two separate driveways, rear yard vehicle access, a covered carport, indoor laundry, and a one-car garage. Located in an X flood zone and just a short distance from a neighborhood playground. <br><br> This sturdy brick home is ready for its next owner to bring their vision and make it their dream home!

2. 2026-05-20
   listed $259,500 Active 606-char remark

   Show marketing remark (606 chars)

   <br><br> The sunroom features a wood-burning fireplace and overlooks the backyard pool area, creating a great flex space for relaxing, entertaining, or future customization. Outside, you'll find both a pool and grassy yard space, giving you the best of both worlds. <br><br> Additional features include two separate driveways, rear yard vehicle access, a covered carport, indoor laundry, and a one-car garage. Located in an X flood zone and just a short distance from a neighborhood playground. <br><br> This sturdy brick home is ready for its next owner to bring their vision and make it their dream home!

3. 2025-03-15
   listed $365,000 Active
4. 2007-06-25
   soldstatus $217,000
5. 2007-06-20
   soldstatus $217,000
6. 2007-04-30
   listed $239,500
7. 2007-04-30
   listed $239,500
8. 1987-05-01
   soldstatus $102,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,958 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,958 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,536
• − Property taxes: −$2,958
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − Depreciation: −$7,549
• Taxable loss: −$4,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,051
• After-tax cash flow: $1,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $48,421
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #44 of 98 in LA

Livability — Metairie

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #261

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Metairie, LA
• County: Jefferson Parish · 426,999 people
• City population: 137,978
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 39,344
• Household income: $76,261
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 710.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 451,696 people
• By 2030: 455,451 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 458,308 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 461,031 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 476,351 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 499,377 · +10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Scotch-Irish 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+12.9) · D 42.5% · R 55.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.6pp toward D · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.03%
• Current HPI: 138.5632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.15%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+154.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $259,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $259,500 GSREIN
• 2025-03-15 Listed $365,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $217,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-20 Sold (MLS) $217,000 GSREIN
• 2007-04-30 Listed $239,500 GSREIN
• 2007-04-30 Listed $239,500 AcadianaMLS
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,958 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.