1127 Highlands Cir · Alford, FL 32420

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1984 1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential in this charming ''Diamond in the Rough'' located in Alford, Florida, just north of Panama City, Florida. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering plenty of room to create your ideal retreat. Enjoy peaceful mornings on the covered front porch, surrounded by nature and the sounds of local wildlife. Nestled on a quiet street within Compass Lake in the Hills, this property provides both privacy and convenience. Located just a short drive from Panama City Beach--home to the ''World's Most Beautiful Beaches''--and with easy access to the Interstate 10 corridor, commuting and travel are a breeze. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 1.04 acre lot
• Community pool

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BOATING FISHING POOL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities: barbecue, basketball court, boat facilities, conference/meeting room, fishing, playground, park, pool, tennis courts; short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Single-story home; Irregular lot shape; Zoned for single-family; county allows horses
• Construction: Wood siding with wood frame construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered patio; Paved lot; Community pool; Community gazebo

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms including a primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Front porch; Back deck; Covered patio
• Laundry & utility: Electricity available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.8% in Alford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#819 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (48%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.54%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
948 Fayette Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,628 (+7%)	16mo	$259,900	$160	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $12,974
• Equity at exit: $13,532

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $41,564
• Equity at exit: $11,505

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32420

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,494/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $659

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $70,000 Pending 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $70,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   status Active
7. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
8. 2026-05-01
   price $70,000
9. 2025-12-18
   listed $134,000 Active
10. 1987-02-01
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,494
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,040
• − Management: −$1,040
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$750
• After-tax cash flow: $3,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson
• NCES district ID: 1200960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,824
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3358
• State rank: #39 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alford

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #819
• US rank: #20017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,232

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,095 people
• By 2030: 44,432 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 41,077 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 37,587 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 28,921 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 19,332 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.7% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.02%
• Current HPI: 172.464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $70,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $134,000 CPARMLS
• 1987-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,494 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.