4911 lot #20 Baker Street Ext · Lakewood, NY 14710

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition $66/sqft · at area comps Est $100k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Baker Estates, a nice small, close knit Manufactured Home Community. Take a look at this well maintained 28'x56' 2000 Skyline Doublewide 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a bonus room/office. New metal roof, new flooring, central air conditioning. One of the few homes in the park with an attached garage. Very reasonable lot rent and low maintenance. Seller currently pays $440 a month and that includes water, sewer, taxes and snow removal. And for $15 a month extra your garbage is picked up weekly. Offers/sale subject to park approval.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Attached garage
• Low maintenance

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• LOW MAINTENANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Panama Central School District (rural): math 72% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #202 of 755 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.07%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,000
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -1.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $70,226
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $194,029
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14710

• Home prices YoY: 14.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $99,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $105,000 Active 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Welcome to Baker Estates, a nice small, close knit Manufactured Home Community. Take a look at this well maintained 28'x56' 2000 Skyline Doublewide 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a bonus room/office. New metal roof, new flooring, central air conditioning. One of the few homes in the park with an attached garage. Very reasonable lot rent and low maintenance. Seller currently pays $440 a month and that includes water, sewer, taxes and snow removal. And for $15 a month extra your garbage is picked up weekly. Offers/sale subject to park approval.

17. 2026-03-01
    historical
18. 2025-09-02
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,588
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$381
• After-tax cash flow: $2,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2000 Skyline Doublewide manufactured home in Baker Estates is in good condition with a new metal roof and central air. It offers a good return on investment with minimal repairs and maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and reduces energy costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and reduces energy costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Panama Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622410
• Math proficiency: 72% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,976
• Composite: 58.33/100
• National rank: #2085
• State rank: #202 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,951

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.70%
• Current HPI: 344.7366
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $105,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $119,900 UNYREIS