127 Independence Ave · Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 106 Days on market

Built 1968 Good condition 5,911 sqft lot Est $208k · at est. $107/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 127 Independence Ave in Lake Tarpon Mobile Home Village, a highly desirable 55+ golf cart–friendly community in Palm Harbor, Florida, where you own the land with no lot rent and enjoy a vibrant waterfront lifestyle on beautiful Lake Tarpon. This well maintained, fully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is move-in ready and located in a non-flood zone, offering peace of mind along with valuable updates including a 2021 HVAC system, 2022 30-gallon water heater. Durable metal roof, and energy-efficient double-pane windows. Inside, the bright and inviting layout features spacious living areas, comfortable bedrooms, and an air-conditioned Florida room that provides ad

Key facts

• 2022 water heater
• Metal roof
• Waterfront lifestyle

Tags

• WATERFRONT LIFESTYLE
• NON FLOOD ZONE
• 2021 HVAC SYSTEM
• 2022 WATER HEATER
• METAL ROOF
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Irrigation equipment
• Financial info: Total monthly fees approximately $107; Total annual fees approximately $1,284; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Village of Lake Tarpon association (monthly fee $107); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, lobby key required; Association fee includes: common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, management, private road, recreational facilities, trash; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Golf carts allowed; Sidewalks; Special community restrictions; Association recreation-owned

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities available; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Residential double-wide mobile home; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Roof over; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living/dining combination; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-323/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,320
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Freedom Ct #29	0.14mi	2/2.0	816 (-15%)	9mo	$105,000	$129	61
251 Independence Ave #20	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (+13%)	15mo	$235,000	$217	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,641
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-58,083
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34684

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$107
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $196,000

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36090 US Highway 19 N Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$2,557	$2.44	3d	66	0.16mi
47 Delaware Ct #10 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	20d	1	0.26mi
65 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	868	$1,700	$1.96	18d	1	0.27mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit A2 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	740	$1,884	$2.55	4d	1	0.27mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit B1 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,245	$2.01	4d	1	0.27mi
72 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	18d	1	0.28mi
3277 Fox Chase Cir N #211 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	825	$1,495	$1.81	24d	1	0.33mi
245 Lake Tarpon Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	2d	1	0.36mi
3295 Fox Chase Cir N #105 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	614	$1,850	$3.01	24d	1	0.36mi
3300 Fox Chase Cir N Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	906	$2,125	$2.35	2d	2	0.41mi
36750 US-19 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	610	$1,875	$3.07	8d	1	0.41mi
2400 Clubside Ct Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,940	$1.72	2d	39	0.45mi
36750 US Highway 19 N Unit 19-115 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	825	$2,150	$2.61	4d	1	0.48mi
274 Beach Ct #42 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	24d	1	0.48mi
3121 Beecher Dr E Unit A Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	976	$2,100	$2.15	8d	1	0.54mi
2199 Chianti Pl Unit 9-0923 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,300	$2.23	24d	1	0.63mi
2141 Portofino Pl Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,510	$2.16	24d	2	0.64mi
2151 Chianti Pl Unit 127 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,700	$1.57	24d	1	0.64mi
2139 Chianti Pl Unit 154 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	830	$1,700	$2.05	24d	1	0.64mi
2945 Grovewood Blvd Unit A Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,775	$1.72	18d	1	0.67mi
2218 Portofino Pl #247 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1050	$1,895	$1.80	18d	1	0.70mi
2130 Bancroft Pl Unit E Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,850	$1.80	3d	1	0.71mi
2130 Bancroft Pl Unit E Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,860	$1.81	8d	1	0.71mi
2176 Portofino Pl Unit 26-026 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	830	$1,600	$1.93	24d	1	0.72mi
2171 Portofino Pl #2727 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,550	$2.21	24d	1	0.75mi
2107 Portofino Pl Unit 30-302 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,500	$2.42	8d	1	0.80mi
2107 Portofino Pl Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$2,250	$2.13	4d	2	0.80mi
2587 Cyprus Dr Unit 3-214 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	825	$2,000	$2.42	24d	1	0.89mi
2571 Cyprus Dr Unit 1-202 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$2,800	$2.87	24d	1	0.89mi
2571 Cyprus Dr Unit 1-101 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	755	$1,900	$2.52	22d	1	0.89mi
36750 US Highway 19 N Unit 6109 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	825	$1,975	$2.39	24d	1	0.89mi
2350 Cypress Pond Rd Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,670	$2.11	2d	54	0.97mi
605 Lennox Rd W Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,950	$1.86	3d	1	1.11mi
36750 US Hwy 19 N Unit 11-210 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	825	$1,800	$2.18	4d	1	1.17mi
2575 Pine Ridge Way S Unit A2 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,590	$1.44	24d	1	1.20mi
2523 Pine Ridge Way S Unit C2 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,750	$1.69	24d	1	1.21mi
36750 US Hwy 19 N #2328 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	530	$1,550	$2.92	24d	1	1.22mi
36750 US Highway 19 N #2074 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,900	$2.71	24d	1	1.22mi
36750 US Hwy 19 N Unit 14-211 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	825	$3,500	$4.24	4d	1	1.36mi
36750 US Hwy 19 N Unit 9-303 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	825	$2,000	$2.42	2d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $107 · $1,284/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-03-04
    listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − HOA: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$863
• After-tax cash flow: $540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, fully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is move-in ready and located in a non-flood zone, offering peace of mind along with valuable updates including a 2021 HVAC system and 2022 30-gallon water heater.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Harbor

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 79,072
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,029
• Household income: $72,145
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1495.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.23%
• Current HPI: 301.651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid