2822 Hidden Springs Cir · Placerville, CA 95667

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $88k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Hidden Springs Villa Senior Park! This home features two-bedrooms, two-bathrooms and has been updated with new windows. Enjoy the covered deck overlooking a charming garden area. Come make this place yours!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Charming garden area
• New windows

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• CHARMING GARDEN AREA
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association; Land lease community (land lease $1,020); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Internet available; 220V in laundry; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Built in 1973; Mobile home make: Independence
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Garden; Storage and shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Built-in gas range; Hood over range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Two fireplaces (brick and wood stove); Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry (inside room/area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $974 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 2.8% in Placerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#553 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Placerville Union Elementary (town): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #248 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.85%
• DSCR: 3.35
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,600
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2846 Hidden Springs Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	4mo	$70,000	$61	84
2820 Hidden Spgs	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	8mo	$102,000	$76	73
2786 Hidden Springs Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	18mo	$43,875	$38	71
2860 Hidden Springs Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	19mo	$98,000	$73	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $59,445
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.05×
• Total profit: $178,062
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95667

• Rents YoY: 12.5%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $974

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
495 Ridgecrest Ct Unit 3 Placerville, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	1d	1	0.42mi
7142 Green Valley Rd Placerville, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$2,100	$2.44	17d	1	1.23mi
3010 Traci Ct Placerville, CA	2.0	2.0	1195	$2,475	$2.07	12d	1	1.25mi
2879 Acacia Way Unit 2 Placerville, CA	2.0	1.0	806	$1,800	$2.23	10d	1	1.26mi
2760 Coloma St Apt 3 Placerville, CA	2.0	1.0	725	$1,700	$2.34	1d	1	1.35mi
631 Weaver Way Placerville, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	20d	1	1.38mi
920 Hillcrest St Placerville, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,300	$2.74	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $79,000 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,000 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $11,093
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,662
• After-tax cash flow: $9,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placerville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0630780
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $54,662
• Composite: 32.8/100
• National rank: #5626
• State rank: #248 of 517 in CA

Livability — Placerville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #553
• US rank: #18366

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Placerville, CA
• County: El Dorado County · 144,198 people
• City population: 36,830
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,830
• Household income: $89,938
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -480.50%
• Current HPI: 262.6014
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.48%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B