165 Heron Dr · Grant-Valkaria, FL 32951

$629,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1976 0.40 ac lot $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION! Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after community of Melbourne Shores. Just a short walk from both the ocean and river, this property is perfect for those who enjoy the beach lifestyle and spending time outdoors. Set on a beautifully maintained 0.4-acre lot, there is plenty of space to add a pool, create outdoor entertainment areas, and park an RV or boat. Inside, the home features an expansive great room with a fireplace and two back porches, one is enclosed with air conditioning and the other is screened. Lovingly cared for by the same owner for over 30 years, this home offers a solid foundation and is ready for your cosmetic updates. The voluntary HOA is just $150 per year and includes access to a riverfront park with fishing pier, boat racks, picnic area, playground, and deeded ocean access with beach pavilion and parking. With nearby nature preserves and a peaceful neighborhood setting, this home offers amazing coastal Florida living!

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Fishing pier
• Boat racks

Tags

• OCEAN ACCESS
• DEEDED OCEAN ACCESS
• RIVERFRONT PARK
• FISHING PIER
• BOAT RACKS
• PICNIC AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property used as single-family residential; Lot on County Road with asphalt frontage; Approximately 0.4-acre lot
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Melbourne Shores Property Owners Association); Annual association fee of $150; One-time association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener; Additional parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Outdoor shower; Porch with screened rear porch; Shed(s); Sprinklers in front and rear; Chain link and other fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and hot water); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Guest suite; Open floorplan; Primary suite on main level; Split bedroom layout; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $630k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $580k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $573k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gemini Elementary School (math 80% / reading 79%, grade A, #116 of 2,144 statewide, top 6%, 468 students, 20% FRL); Herbert C. Hoover Middle School (math 67% / reading 64%, grade A-, #95 of 571 statewide, top 17%, 506 students, 38% FRL); Melbourne Senior High School (math 43% / reading 57%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 2,249 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,797/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 196% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($573k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $630k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $573,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.49%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-55,175
• Equity at exit: $93,920

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $11,709
• Equity at exit: $54,462

Cash invested: $176,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32951

• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,797 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,303
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,337/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,217
• Net cashflow: $740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,861

Max offer price $629,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,475
• Closing costs: $18,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5829 Highway A1A Melbourne Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	2299	$8,000	$3.48	21d	1	0.16mi
5327 Solway Dr Melbourne Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2837	$3,500	$1.23	23d	1	0.85mi
6305 Highway A1A #161 Melbourne Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$5,000	$3.02	23d	1	0.90mi
6305 South Highway A1A Unit 142 Melbourne Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1442	$4,300	$2.98	23d	1	0.91mi
6307 South Highway A1A Unit 252 Melbourne Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1442	$2,750	$1.91	23d	1	0.94mi
136 Atlantic Dr Melbourne Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1693	$2,900	$1.71	23d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $629,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $629,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $629,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $629,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $629,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $629,900 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $629,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $629,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $629,900 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $629,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $629,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $629,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $629,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $629,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $629,900
16. 2026-03-10
    listed $650,000 Active
17. 2025-08-01
    historical 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION! Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after community of Melbourne Shores. Just a short walk from both the ocean and river, this property is perfect for those who enjoy the beach lifestyle and spending time outdoors. Set on a beautifully maintained 0.4-acre lot, there is plenty of space to add a pool, create outdoor entertainment areas, and park an RV or boat. Inside, the home features an expansive great room with a fireplace and two back porches, one is enclosed with air conditioning and the other is screened. Lovingly cared for by the same owner for over 30 years, this home offers a solid foundation and is ready for your cosmetic updates. The voluntary HOA is just $150 per year and includes access to a riverfront park with fishing pier, boat racks, picnic area, playground, and deeded ocean access with beach pavilion and parking. With nearby nature preserves and a peaceful neighborhood setting, this home offers amazing coastal Florida living!

18. 2025-05-22
    price $625,000 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION! Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after community of Melbourne Shores. Just a short walk from both the ocean and river, this property is perfect for those who enjoy the beach lifestyle and spending time outdoors. Set on a beautifully maintained 0.4-acre lot, there is plenty of space to add a pool, create outdoor entertainment areas, and park an RV or boat. Inside, the home features an expansive great room with a fireplace and two back porches, one is enclosed with air conditioning and the other is screened. Lovingly cared for by the same owner for over 30 years, this home offers a solid foundation and is ready for your cosmetic updates. The voluntary HOA is just $150 per year and includes access to a riverfront park with fishing pier, boat racks, picnic area, playground, and deeded ocean access with beach pavilion and parking. With nearby nature preserves and a peaceful neighborhood setting, this home offers amazing coastal Florida living!

19. 2025-03-14
    listed $650,000 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION! Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after community of Melbourne Shores. Just a short walk from both the ocean and river, this property is perfect for those who enjoy the beach lifestyle and spending time outdoors. Set on a beautifully maintained 0.4-acre lot, there is plenty of space to add a pool, create outdoor entertainment areas, and park an RV or boat. Inside, the home features an expansive great room with a fireplace and two back porches, one is enclosed with air conditioning and the other is screened. Lovingly cared for by the same owner for over 30 years, this home offers a solid foundation and is ready for your cosmetic updates. The voluntary HOA is just $150 per year and includes access to a riverfront park with fishing pier, boat racks, picnic area, playground, and deeded ocean access with beach pavilion and parking. With nearby nature preserves and a peaceful neighborhood setting, this home offers amazing coastal Florida living!

20. 1990-03-01
    soldstatus $105,000
21. 1985-12-01
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,228 · $436/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,891/yr (+$241/mo · 123.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 86% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,337
• − Insurance: −$3,947
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,565
• − Management: −$5,565
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$18,324
• Taxable loss: −$1,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$387
• After-tax cash flow: $9,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Grant-Valkaria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 2,821
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,299
• Household income: $98,420
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 196.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.56%
• Current HPI: 379.9073
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+687.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $629,900 SCMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $650,000 SCMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $625,000 SCMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $650,000 SCMLS
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1985-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,337 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.