459 Davis St · Fairfield, TX 75840

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1965 0.50 ac lot $89/sqft · 33% below area Est $179k · 33% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick home at 459 Davis St sits on a generous half-acre lot in the heart of Fairfield, TX. Built for comfortable living, it features an open-concept layout filled with natural light, fresh interior paint, and stylish laminate flooring throughout. The updated kitchen boasts new countertops, sink, and faucet—perfect for everyday cooking or entertaining. You’ll love the three spacious walk-in closets offering rare storage options for a home this size. Stay comfortable year-round with central HVAC and ceiling fans in key rooms. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, space for pets or play, and plenty of potential for outdoor living. A two-car attached garage adds function and convenience. Located just minutes from local schools, shops, and dining, this home is ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a well-maintained home in a peaceful Fairfield neighborhood!

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Open-concept layout
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• THREE SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSETS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO-CAR ATTACHED GARAGE
• MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($655/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.8% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#736 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Fairfield ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #475 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Freestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Freestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,760 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.95%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,840
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -32.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Friendswood Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,366 (+1%)	15mo	$265,000	$194	73
461 E Bradley St	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,273 (-6%)	11mo	$178,000	$140	64
471 Anderson Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (-3%)	14mo	$123,500	$94	58
470 Anderson Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (-3%)	18mo	$140,000	$106	56
427 E Bradley St	0.35mi	2/1.5	1,476 (+9%)	14mo	$151,000	$102	55
753 Stardust Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,237 (-9%)	9mo	$185,000	$150	51
212 S Cotton St	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,274 (-6%)	19mo	$127,000	$100	50
769 Southwood Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,533 (+13%)	14mo	$168,000	$110	37
322 E College St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,191 (-12%)	5mo	$159,900	$134	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-15,952
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,348
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75840

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,788/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $120,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $125,000 Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick home at 459 Davis St sits on a generous half-acre lot in the heart of Fairfield, TX. Built for comfortable living, it features an open-concept layout filled with natural light, fresh interior paint, and stylish laminate flooring throughout. The updated kitchen boasts new countertops, sink, and faucet—perfect for everyday cooking or entertaining. You’ll love the three spacious walk-in closets offering rare storage options for a home this size. Stay comfortable year-round with central HVAC and ceiling fans in key rooms. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, space for pets or play, and plenty of potential for outdoor living. A two-car attached garage adds function and convenience. Located just minutes from local schools, shops, and dining, this home is ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a well-maintained home in a peaceful Fairfield neighborhood!

19. 2026-02-28
    historical
20. 2025-12-31
    price $120,000
21. 2025-12-06
    price $130,000
22. 2025-11-20
    price $138,000
23. 2025-10-17
    price $150,000
24. 2025-09-12
    price $162,000
25. 2025-08-21
    listed $172,000 Active
26. 2024-08-01
    soldstatus
27. 2024-07-31
    soldstatus Closed
28. 2024-06-14
    historical Active Option Contract
29. 2024-05-01
    price $150,000
30. 2024-04-03
    price $156,000
31. 2024-02-05
    price $160,000
32. 2024-01-22
    listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,788 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 22.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,788
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$321
• After-tax cash flow: $976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,909
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5926
• State rank: #475 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #13679

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,993

Population outlook (Freestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,591 people
• By 2030: 19,470 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 19,111 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 18,700 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 17,586 · -10.2%
• By 2100: 14,933 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Freestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.3) · D 16.6% · R 82.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.3 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.43%
• Current HPI: 185.1167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $138,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $162,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $172,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-06-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $156,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-05 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-22 Listed $170,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,788 · -15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.