20350 Hole In One Dr Spc 76 · Redding, CA 96002

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 147 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $69k · 42% under ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this adorable clean cozy home , 2 bedroom/1 bath, living room, dining area with built in hutch, all appliances are included. Covered front porch, covered carport and a nice storage shed. Join the Fairway Oaks Community 55+ Park. Located just steps away from the Clubhouse and Pool!

Key facts

• Dog park
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• SPA
• CLUBHOUSE
• RV STORAGE
• DOG PARK
• OPEN LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Fairway Oaks mobile home park; Park model: United States

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 carport space
• Home design: Manufactured in park (Mobile Home)
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Deck; Level topography; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heating present
• Interior features: Dryer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer; Cooktop
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.5% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Pacheco Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #264 of 517 in CA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.84%
• DSCR: 5.80
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,800
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20350 Hole In 1 Dr #11	0.00mi	2/2.0	880 (+10%)	2mo	$63,000	$72	78
20350 Hole In One Dr #59	0.00mi	2/2.0	850 (+6%)	12mo	$47,000	$55	75
20350 Hole In One Drive Dr #33	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	917 (+15%)	20mo	$78,500	$86	54
20480 River Valley Dr #2	0.69mi	2/1.0	688 (-14%)	8mo	$60,000	$87	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $55,841
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.07×
• Total profit: $124,012
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96002

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $1,007

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,034	-5% $1,020	+0% $1,007	+5% $993	+10% $979
Rent	-10% $878	-5% $942	+0% $1,007	+5% $1,071	+10% $1,135
Rate	-1.0pp $1,027	-0.5pp $1,017	base $1,007	+0.5pp $996	+1.0pp $986

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6656 Churn Creek Rd Unit M-6656 Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	966	$1,625	$1.68	14d	1	0.68mi
3222 Camellia St Anderson, CA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,400	$1.89	14d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $40,000 Pending 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $40,000 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    price $43,000
19. 2026-03-13
    price $45,000
20. 2026-02-12
    price $47,000
21. 2026-01-22
    listed $49,000 Active
22. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Check out this adorable clean cozy home , 2 bedroom/1 bath, living room, dining area with built in hutch, all appliances are included. Covered front porch, covered carport and a nice storage shed. Join the Fairway Oaks Community 55+ Park. Located just steps away from the Clubhouse and Pool!

23. 2024-05-02
    status Pending 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Check out this adorable clean cozy home , 2 bedroom/1 bath, living room, dining area with built in hutch, all appliances are included. Covered front porch, covered carport and a nice storage shed. Join the Fairway Oaks Community 55+ Park. Located just steps away from the Clubhouse and Pool!

24. 2024-04-19
    historical 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Check out this adorable clean cozy home , 2 bedroom/1 bath, living room, dining area with built in hutch, all appliances are included. Covered front porch, covered carport and a nice storage shed. Join the Fairway Oaks Community 55+ Park. Located just steps away from the Clubhouse and Pool!

25. 2024-01-26
    price $60,000 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Check out this adorable clean cozy home , 2 bedroom/1 bath, living room, dining area with built in hutch, all appliances are included. Covered front porch, covered carport and a nice storage shed. Join the Fairway Oaks Community 55+ Park. Located just steps away from the Clubhouse and Pool!

26. 2024-01-02
    status Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Check out this adorable clean cozy home , 2 bedroom/1 bath, living room, dining area with built in hutch, all appliances are included. Covered front porch, covered carport and a nice storage shed. Join the Fairway Oaks Community 55+ Park. Located just steps away from the Clubhouse and Pool!

27. 2023-11-02
    listed $64,500 Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Check out this adorable clean cozy home , 2 bedroom/1 bath, living room, dining area with built in hutch, all appliances are included. Covered front porch, covered carport and a nice storage shed. Join the Fairway Oaks Community 55+ Park. Located just steps away from the Clubhouse and Pool!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥105°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $12,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,920
• After-tax cash flow: $9,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pacheco Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629280
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,905
• Composite: 31.26/100
• National rank: #6025
• State rank: #264 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,783
• Household income: $73,222
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1026.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.70%
• Current HPI: 319.713
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $43,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $45,000 SAOR
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $47,000 SAOR
• 2026-01-22 Listed $49,000 SAOR
• 2024-05-21 Sold (MLS) $50,000 SAOR
• 2024-05-02 Pending — SAOR
• 2024-04-19 Delisted — SAOR
• 2024-01-26 Price Changed $60,000 SAOR
• 2024-01-02 Relisted — SAOR
• 2023-11-02 Listed $64,500 SAOR