Lancia's Avalon II Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46818

$237,800

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,855 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Avalon II is a spacious 2-story floor plan. The Laundry Room or extra Pantry off the Garage features Locker Cubbies, making storage easy. Great Room is completely open to the Nook and Kitchen. 3 Bedrooms upstairs + Loft for bonus space. Office or Bonus Room at the front of the house has a tray ceiling. A full basement is available.

Key facts

• Locker cubbies
• Laundry room
• Kitchen

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOCKER CUBBIES
• GREAT ROOM
• NOOK
• KITCHEN
• LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $237,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,702.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-571 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Arcola School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B+, #55 of 994 statewide, top 6%, 216 students, 33% FRL); Carroll Middle School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D+, #65 of 330 statewide, top 21%, 994 students, 29% FRL); Carroll High School (math 59% / reading 86%, grade B+, #10 of 369 statewide, top 3%, 2,554 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 11% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 548 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,264 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,702
• List price: $237,800
• Delta: -29.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4832 Whittlebury Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,815 (-2%)	2mo	$385,037	$212	77
12850 Towcester Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-5%)	1mo	$377,900	$214	76
12346 Harleys Run	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,771 (-4%)	2mo	$309,000	$174	75
12865 Towcester Ct	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,946 (+5%)	1mo	$374,900	$193	73
12017 Swather Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,819 (-2%)	2mo	$364,900	$201	72
4796 Whittlebury Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,999 (+8%)	1mo	$397,900	$199	70
4898 Whittlebury Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-5%)	2mo	$368,900	$209	69
5289 Patron Pass	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,596 (-14%)	3mo	$350,192	$219	66
4452 Katfur Ct	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,771 (-4%)	2mo	$317,345	$179	65
5529 Rio Azul Cv	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+8%)	2mo	$463,285	$232	65
5330 Rio Azul Cv	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,033 (+10%)	1mo	$505,790	$249	65
12192 Bozzio Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,622 (-13%)	1mo	$330,000	$203	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-79,601
• Equity at exit: $50,054

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-65,758
• Equity at exit: $29,025

Cash invested: $93,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 85 active · 58 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.1 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $345,000 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 279 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46818

• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,036/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,994

Max offer price $253,088

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-339	-5% $-455	+0% $-571	+5% $-687	+10% $-803
Rent	-10% $-750	-5% $-661	+0% $-571	+5% $-481	+10% $-392
Rate	-1.0pp $-402	-0.5pp $-486	base $-571	+0.5pp $-658	+1.0pp $-746

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,926
• Closing costs: $10,071
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5045 Portney Pl Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	2226	$2,300	$1.03	184d	1	0.12mi
4722 Whittlebury Dr Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,999	$1.21	154d	1	0.30mi
3619 Boulder Pass Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,895	$1.22	50d	1	1.00mi
3115 Carroll Rd Unit 3354 Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,400	$1.81	2d	1	1.39mi
3115 Carroll Rd Fort Wayne, IN	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1248	$2,300	$1.84	38d	5	1.39mi
3115 Carroll Rd Unit 3366 Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1262	$2,300	$1.82	9d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $237,800 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $237,800 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $237,800 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $237,800 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $237,800 Active 439 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $237,800 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $237,800 Active 436 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $237,800 Active 435 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $237,800 Active 434 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $237,800 Active 433 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $237,800 Active 432 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $237,800 Active 431 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $237,800 Active 430 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $237,800 Active 429 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $237,800 Active 428 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $237,800 Active 427 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $237,800 Active 426 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $237,800 Active 425 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $237,800 Active 424 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $237,800 Active 423 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $237,800 Active 422 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $237,800 Active 421 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $237,800 Active 420 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $237,800 Active 419 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $237,800 Active 418 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $237,800 Active 417 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $237,800 Active 416 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $237,800 Active 415 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $237,800 Active 414 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $237,800 Active 413 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $237,800 Active 412 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $237,800 Active 411 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $237,800 Active 410 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $237,800 Active 409 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $237,800 Active 408 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $237,800 Active 407 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $237,800 Active 406 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $237,800 Active 405 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $237,800 Active 404 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $237,800 Active 403 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $237,800 Active 402 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $237,800 Active 401 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $237,800 Active 400 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $237,800 Active 399 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $237,800 Active 398 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $237,800 Active 397 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $237,800 Active 396 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $237,800 Active 395 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $237,800 Active 394 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $237,800 Active 392 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,036
• − Insurance: −$1,679
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$9,766
• Taxable loss: −$12,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,104
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Avalon II plan by Lancia is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious 2-story layout with a great open floor plan and ample storage. The exterior is well-maintained and attractive, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Arcola School B+ IN #55/994 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Carroll Middle School D+ IN #65/330 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Carroll High School B+ IN #10/369 Nat'l #1,843/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1808250
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $78,952
• Composite: 49.26/100
• National rank: #2027
• State rank: #25 of 301 in IN

A Composite livability gradescore 84/100

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 394,020 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 21,954
• Household income: $81,066
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.71%
• Current HPI: 228.1539
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.64%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $233,000 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $231,200 Zillow