78 Bay Ave W · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$749,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1991 0.94 ac lot Est $923k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedrooms and 2 bath. Call for more details. This property is sold as-is and is being sold occupied. Does not qualify for financed offers.

Key facts

• New construction
• Oversized lot
• Prime location

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• PRIME LOCATION
• NEW CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $749k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $749k).
• Recommended offer: $727k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,645/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($727k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $370k; list at $749k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $726,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $923,076
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Wells Ln	0.37mi	2/1.5	1,378 (-1%)	0mo	$1,115,000	$809	79
12 Hampton Bays Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-5%)	2mo	$967,500	$733	75
56 W Donellan Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (-3%)	1mo	$795,000	$593	73
5 Coolidge Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+1%)	8mo	$699,000	$499	66
40 Donellan Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+1%)	6mo	$935,000	$666	65
18 Yale Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,442 (+4%)	14mo	$999,999	$693	62
7 Harvard Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,228 (-11%)	2mo	$815,000	$664	60
18 Alanson Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+1%)	4mo	$985,000	$704	57
1 Springville Cir	0.58mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,500 (+8%)	8mo	$1,350,000	$900	44
25 Lynncliff Rd	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,530 (+10%)	15mo	$825,100	$539	41
6 Westerly Ct	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,276 (-8%)	6mo	$755,000	$592	40
129 Springville Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+10%)	15mo	$780,000	$513	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-2,390
• Equity at exit: $111,678

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $282,664
• Equity at exit: $64,760

Cash invested: $209,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax from tax record: −$564 /mo · $6,765/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,605
• Net cashflow: $1,236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,081

Max offer price $749,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,250
• Closing costs: $22,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	24d	1	0.10mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.17mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	19d	1	0.36mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	43d	1	0.39mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	0.39mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	24d	1	0.45mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	43d	1	0.45mi
18 Shinnecock Rd Unit 3 Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	1760	$22,000	$12.50	24d	1	0.51mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	43d	1	0.55mi
15 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1665	$30,000	$18.02	19d	1	0.58mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,445	$4.30	2d	1	0.62mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	43d	1	0.63mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	0.65mi
37 Maryland Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1640	$20,000	$12.20	43d	1	0.70mi
36 Nautilus Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1726	$36,000	$20.86	43d	1	0.72mi
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	43d	1	0.81mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	24d	1	1.03mi
6 Lynn Ct Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1212	$2,900	$2.39	43d	1	1.03mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	1.16mi
41 Cormorant Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1874	$25,000	$13.34	19d	1	1.19mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	43d	1	1.24mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	5d	1	1.26mi
5 Ardmore Ct Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$28,000	$15.56	19d	1	1.28mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	20d	1	1.39mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	24d	1	1.42mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-13
   listed $749,000 Active
3. 2025-04-21
   soldstatus $370,000
4. 2024-10-01
   soldstatus $370,000 Closed 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   2 bedrooms and 2 bath. Call for more details. This property is sold as-is and is being sold occupied. Does not qualify for financed offers.

5. 2024-09-10
   status Pending 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   2 bedrooms and 2 bath. Call for more details. This property is sold as-is and is being sold occupied. Does not qualify for financed offers.

6. 2024-08-23
   listed $420,000 Active 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   2 bedrooms and 2 bath. Call for more details. This property is sold as-is and is being sold occupied. Does not qualify for financed offers.

7. 2004-06-08
   soldstatus $372,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,765 · $564/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,711 · $809/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,947/yr (+$246/mo · 43.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $91,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,956
• − Property taxes: −$6,765
• − Insurance: −$3,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,339
• − Management: −$7,339
• − Depreciation: −$21,789
• Taxable income: $2,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$673
• After-tax cash flow: $14,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+100.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-01 Sold (MLS) $370,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Listed $420,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $372,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,765 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.