538 Sanders Hill Rd · Strykersville, NY 14145

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1890 0.96 ac lot Est $279k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Endless possibilities await at this spacious 4-bedroom country home that has been lovingly owned by the same family for over 65 years! It is situated on nearly an acre lot in Holland Schools. This property offers the perfect opportunity to add your personal touch and make it your own. The roof is only 5 years old, providing peace of mind as you bring your vision to life. You'll love the inviting covered front porch which is perfect for enjoying your morning coffee, or unwinding on a quiet evening. Inside, you'll find four bedrooms and an abundance of storage space to accommodate all your needs. Step outside and discover a tranquil backyard that offers a private retreat for gardening, entert

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Separate outbuilding
• Nearly an acre lot

Tags

• NEARLY AN ACRE LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• TRANQUIL BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SEPARATE OUTBUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing (previously built) condition; Irregular lot; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare
• Construction: Wood siding; Copper plumbing; Stone foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7 (includes living, laundry, bonus room)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Natural woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($155/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#758 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, employment B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Holland Central School District (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #501 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harold O Brumsted Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 296 students, 30% FRL); Holland Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 231 students, 38% FRL); Holland High School (math 95%, 245 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,356 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,460
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
517 Factory Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,711 (-4%)	18mo	$269,071	$157	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-21,830
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-17,810
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14145

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,409/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $53	+0% $13	+5% $-27	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-37	+0% $13	+5% $63	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $48	base $13	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $140,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $140,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,409
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$525
• After-tax cash flow: $679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614550
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $59,519
• Composite: 35.39/100
• National rank: #4950
• State rank: #501 of 590 in NY

Livability — Strykersville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #758
• US rank: #14534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Strykersville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,275

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 4% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.31%
• Current HPI: 307.9033
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $140,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,409 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.