884 Birchwood Dr · South Lockport, NY 14094

$99,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful home will be ready to move into in August of 2023. This charming three bedroom two bath is located on Birchwood Dr. with many new homes around. This Erie model home has an open concept floor plan, kitchen island counter for extra seating or entertaining. The set up gives you room to work and room to move. The handy laundry room has its own space along with a roomy pantry, hook ups for your washer dryer and privacy door. Past the second door entrance you will find the primary bedroom. A private ensuite with walk in shower, large vanity will give you your own privacy separated from the front bedrooms. Across the family room to the front of the home you will find the second and

Key facts

• Handy laundry room
• Roomy pantry
• Private ensuite

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND COUNTER
• HANDY LAUNDRY ROOM
• ROOMY PANTRY
• PRIVATE ENSUITE
• WALK IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $107,000

Exterior

• Home design: Spec new construction (Plan: Erie)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,056 (as reported)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.21%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $36,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
533 Applewood Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	5mo	$35,000	$35	77
1327 Willowbrook Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	14mo	$48,000	$45	74
1347 Fernwood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	12mo	$100,000	$89	71
1158 Timberwood Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (+1%)	6mo	$60,000	$56	70
1108 Lockwood Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	0mo	$30,000	$30	70
1289 Norwood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+1%)	5mo	$37,000	$35	70
378 Birchwood	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,095 (+4%)	2mo	$35,000	$32	69
1352 Fernwood Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+9%)	4mo	$39,000	$34	68
349 S Brookside	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+4%)	0mo	$37,500	$34	59
306 Dogwood Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,035 (-2%)	7mo	$43,000	$42	55
1062 Fernwood Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	964 (-9%)	14mo	$16,500	$17	45
288 Fox Hunt Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (+10%)	2mo	$45,600	$39	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $10,327
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $45,910
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $436	+0% $402	+5% $367	+10% $332
Rent	-10% $292	-5% $347	+0% $402	+5% $456	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $427	base $402	+0.5pp $376	+1.0pp $349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,999 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,999 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,999 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,999 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,999 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,999 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $3,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with a premium location. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B