1428 Mallard Duck Rd · Columbia, TN 38401

$177,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $105/sqft · 41% below area Est $300k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come tour this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an open floor plan, spacious primary suite, 8x10 storage shed and much more!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• 8x10 storage shed
• Built 2026

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• 8X10 STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1428 Mallard Duck Rd, Columbia TN 38401; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $177,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and central air
• Home design: Spec home — Clayton Rutledge 118 plan (Duck River Estates)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,680; Built as part of new construction inventory
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $177k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $177k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.8% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1118 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,690 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.13%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,900
• List price: $177,000
• Delta: -40.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,054
• Equity at exit: $26,391

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $40,581
• Equity at exit: $15,304

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1118
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$221 /mo · $2,655/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $177,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1827 Goldsberry St Columbia, TN	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,795	$1.19	16d	1	1.19mi
552 Nightengale Ridge Dr , TN	3.0	2.5	2163	$2,500	$1.16	12d	1	1.22mi
1422 Club House Dr Columbia, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,799	$1.73	2d	20	1.32mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $177,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $177,000 Active 124-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,655
• − Insurance: −$1,555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable income: $1,147
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$275
• After-tax cash flow: $3,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Columbia, TN, is in good condition with a good layout and modern finishes. It has potential for further updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the ceiling — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the ceiling — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 121,382 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2026.0

Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B