5508 Keith Ct #19 · Sacramento, CA 95832

$62,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition Est $65k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this fully remodeled 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home located in the desirable Countryside Mobile Home Estates, a 55+ senior community. This home features modern finishes, updated fixtures, and a bright, open layout. Conveniently situated near Highway 99 and less than 10 minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Move in ready and ideal for low-maintenance living.

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Bright open layout
• Modern finishes

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• MODERN FINISHES
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• CONVENIENTLY SITUATED
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease indicates No (note: a land lease amount of $700 is listed separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; 220 volts in laundry; Other sewer; Other electric/utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; Knollwood make; Wood skirting; Built in 1989
• Construction: Other roof type
• Exterior features: No notable lot features listed; Other utilities listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Great room living area; Dining and living room combined; Pantry closet
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry hookups; 220V outlet in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.6% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Keyes Elementary (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 473 students, 85% FRL); Barbara Spratling Middle (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #370 of 498 statewide, top 75%, 229 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,625 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.98%
• DSCR: 5.49
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,072
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5538 Keith Ct	0.09mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	14mo	$40,000	$56	71
5526 Keith Ct	0.09mi	2/1.0	696 (-11%)	10mo	$57,500	$83	69
5061 Nunes Rd #39	0.67mi	2/1.0	800 (+2%)	12mo	$74,500	$93	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $79,509
• Equity at exit: $9,319

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.56×
• Total profit: $184,871
• Equity at exit: $5,404

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95832

• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $1,406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $631

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,449	-5% $1,428	+0% $1,406	+5% $1,385	+10% $1,363
Rent	-10% $1,216	-5% $1,311	+0% $1,406	+5% $1,501	+10% $1,597
Rate	-1.0pp $1,438	-0.5pp $1,422	base $1,406	+0.5pp $1,390	+1.0pp $1,373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 W Christoffersen Pkwy Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,217	$2.28	15d	15	1.12mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $62,500 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $62,500 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,900 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $16,934
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,064
• After-tax cash flow: $12,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully remodeled 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is move-in ready and ideal for low-maintenance living. It features modern finishes, updated fixtures, and a bright, open layout. Consider painting the exterior siding and adding landscaping and outdoor living space to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Addition of a small patio or deck — Improves outdoor living space and value.
• Both Addition of a small storage shed — Provides additional storage and enhances curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Addition of a small patio or deck — Improves outdoor living space and value. ↑
• Both Addition of a small storage shed — Provides additional storage and enhances curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 12,850
• Household income: $82,318
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 509.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 36% Asian 33% Two or more races 16% White 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 15% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.16%
• Current HPI: 362.481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B