35607 Bonnebell Dr · Watson, LA 70706

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 138 Days on market

1.02 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one-acre property offers country living near city amenities--shopping, hospitals, and top schools. The updated mobile home features new walls (insulation/sheetrock) interior painting, flooring, electrical, plumbing, and a new water heater. There's even a metal platform ready for a third bedroom. With space for your family, pets, or animals, it's perfect for investors, first-time buyers, you can start living in the updated mobile home now while planning your future build!

Key facts

• Updated mobile home
• New water heater
• One acre property

Tags

• ONE ACRE PROPERTY
• UPDATED MOBILE HOME
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.8% in Watson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.76%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $12,998
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $48,628
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $484	+0% $456	+5% $428	+10% $400
Rent	-10% $351	-5% $404	+0% $456	+5% $509	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $506	-0.5pp $482	base $456	+0.5pp $431	+1.0pp $405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $99,000 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This one-acre property offers country living near city amenities—shopping, hospitals, and top schools. The updated mobile home features new walls (insulation/sheetrock) interior painting, flooring, electrical, plumbing, and a new water heater. There’s even a metal platform ready for a third bedroom. With space for your family, pets, or animals, it’s perfect for investors, first-time buyers, you can start living in the updated mobile home now while planning your future build!

16. 2026-04-09
    price $99,000 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This one-acre property offers country living near city amenities—shopping, hospitals, and top schools. The updated mobile home features new walls (insulation/sheetrock) interior painting, flooring, electrical, plumbing, and a new water heater. There’s even a metal platform ready for a third bedroom. With space for your family, pets, or animals, it’s perfect for investors, first-time buyers, you can start living in the updated mobile home now while planning your future build!

17. 2026-03-15
    price $109,000 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    This one-acre property offers country living near city amenities--shopping, hospitals, and top schools. The updated mobile home features new walls (insulation/sheetrock) interior painting, flooring, electrical, plumbing, and a new water heater. There's even a metal platform ready for a third bedroom. With space for your family, pets, or animals, it's perfect for investors, first-time buyers, you can start living in the updated mobile home now while planning your future build!

18. 2026-03-14
    price $109,000 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This one-acre property offers country living near city amenities—shopping, hospitals, and top schools. The updated mobile home features new walls (insulation/sheetrock) interior painting, flooring, electrical, plumbing, and a new water heater. There’s even a metal platform ready for a third bedroom. With space for your family, pets, or animals, it’s perfect for investors, first-time buyers, you can start living in the updated mobile home now while planning your future build!

19. 2026-01-31
    listed $119,000 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    This one-acre property offers country living near city amenities--shopping, hospitals, and top schools. The updated mobile home features new walls (insulation/sheetrock) interior painting, flooring, electrical, plumbing, and a new water heater. There's even a metal platform ready for a third bedroom. With space for your family, pets, or animals, it's perfect for investors, first-time buyers, you can start living in the updated mobile home now while planning your future build!

20. 2026-01-31
    listed $119,000 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    This one-acre property offers country living near city amenities--shopping, hospitals, and top schools. The updated mobile home features new walls (insulation/sheetrock) interior painting, flooring, electrical, plumbing, and a new water heater. There's even a metal platform ready for a third bedroom. With space for your family, pets, or animals, it's perfect for investors, first-time buyers, you can start living in the updated mobile home now while planning your future build!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$52/yr (+$4/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$980
• After-tax cash flow: $4,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $99,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $99,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $109,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $109,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $119,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $119,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $492 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.