115 Samantha Way · Canyonville, OR 97417

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 369 Days on market

Built 2001 $56/sqft · 25% below area Est $131k · 25% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious & inviting! This fantastic home is situated in a gated, 55+ community is only minutes from Seven Feathers Casino with easy access to I-5. The spacious interior features generously sized bedrooms, split floor plan with a private primary suite & large attached bathroom with walk-in shower, soaking tub & dual sinks. You'll find plenty of living space plus formal dining room with built-in cabinets, large island kitchen, separate den/office, indoor laundry room for convenience & a finished 2 car garage for storage. RV parking is available for a monthly fee. Don't wait on this one!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Rv parking
• Formal dining room

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• RV PARKING
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE ISLAND KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $698 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#183 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• South Umpqua SD 19 (town): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #51 of 58 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 369 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 369 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.20%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,291
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -24.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
490 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	2mo	$125,000	$70	90
276 Wild Creek Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	4mo	$105,000	$59	81
453 Sandra Ct	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (0%)	8mo	$258,000	$145	78
405 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	16mo	$155,000	$87	77
204 Samantha Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-8%)	9mo	$157,500	$96	75
393 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	21mo	$158,500	$89	73
125 Comfort Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	11mo	$174,000	$98	72
454 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-4%)	18mo	$135,000	$79	67
402 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-4%)	24mo	$145,000	$85	63
547 SW Fifth St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,968 (+10%)	12mo	$341,000	$173	58
204 Lucky Ridge Loop	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+8%)	24mo	$230,000	$120	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $28,392
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $81,955
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97417

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $825

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $754	-5% $726	+0% $698	+5% $670	+10% $642
Rent	-10% $563	-5% $630	+0% $698	+5% $765	+10% $832
Rate	-1.0pp $747	-0.5pp $723	base $698	+0.5pp $672	+1.0pp $646

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
325 S Pine St Canyonville, OR	4.0	1.0	1640	$1,800	$1.10	44d	1	0.42mi
450 Maylea Pl Canyonville, OR	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,500	$1.22	44d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 369 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 368 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 367 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 366 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 365 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 363 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 362 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 359 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 358 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 357 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 354 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 352 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 351 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 350 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 349 DOM
16. 2026-01-13
    status Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Spacious & inviting! This fantastic home is situated in a gated, 55+ community is only minutes from Seven Feathers Casino with easy access to I-5. The spacious interior features generously sized bedrooms, split floor plan with a private primary suite & large attached bathroom with walk-in shower, soaking tub & dual sinks. You'll find plenty of living space plus formal dining room with built-in cabinets, large island kitchen, separate den/office, indoor laundry room for convenience & a finished 2 car garage for storage. RV parking is available for a monthly fee. Don't wait on this one!

17. 2025-10-23
    price $126,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Spacious & inviting! This fantastic home is situated in a gated, 55+ community is only minutes from Seven Feathers Casino with easy access to I-5. The spacious interior features generously sized bedrooms, split floor plan with a private primary suite & large attached bathroom with walk-in shower, soaking tub & dual sinks. You'll find plenty of living space plus formal dining room with built-in cabinets, large island kitchen, separate den/office, indoor laundry room for convenience & a finished 2 car garage for storage. RV parking is available for a monthly fee. Don't wait on this one!

18. 2025-09-19
    status Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Spacious & inviting! This fantastic home is situated in a gated, 55+ community is only minutes from Seven Feathers Casino with easy access to I-5. The spacious interior features generously sized bedrooms, split floor plan with a private primary suite & large attached bathroom with walk-in shower, soaking tub & dual sinks. You'll find plenty of living space plus formal dining room with built-in cabinets, large island kitchen, separate den/office, indoor laundry room for convenience & a finished 2 car garage for storage. RV parking is available for a monthly fee. Don't wait on this one!

19. 2025-06-04
    status Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Spacious & inviting! This fantastic home is situated in a gated, 55+ community is only minutes from Seven Feathers Casino with easy access to I-5. The spacious interior features generously sized bedrooms, split floor plan with a private primary suite & large attached bathroom with walk-in shower, soaking tub & dual sinks. You'll find plenty of living space plus formal dining room with built-in cabinets, large island kitchen, separate den/office, indoor laundry room for convenience & a finished 2 car garage for storage. RV parking is available for a monthly fee. Don't wait on this one!

20. 2025-05-22
    status Pending 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Spacious & inviting! This fantastic home is situated in a gated, 55+ community is only minutes from Seven Feathers Casino with easy access to I-5. The spacious interior features generously sized bedrooms, split floor plan with a private primary suite & large attached bathroom with walk-in shower, soaking tub & dual sinks. You'll find plenty of living space plus formal dining room with built-in cabinets, large island kitchen, separate den/office, indoor laundry room for convenience & a finished 2 car garage for storage. RV parking is available for a monthly fee. Don't wait on this one!

21. 2025-04-07
    price $129,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Spacious & inviting! This fantastic home is situated in a gated, 55+ community is only minutes from Seven Feathers Casino with easy access to I-5. The spacious interior features generously sized bedrooms, split floor plan with a private primary suite & large attached bathroom with walk-in shower, soaking tub & dual sinks. You'll find plenty of living space plus formal dining room with built-in cabinets, large island kitchen, separate den/office, indoor laundry room for convenience & a finished 2 car garage for storage. RV parking is available for a monthly fee. Don't wait on this one!

22. 2025-03-03
    price $139,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Spacious & inviting! This fantastic home is situated in a gated, 55+ community is only minutes from Seven Feathers Casino with easy access to I-5. The spacious interior features generously sized bedrooms, split floor plan with a private primary suite & large attached bathroom with walk-in shower, soaking tub & dual sinks. You'll find plenty of living space plus formal dining room with built-in cabinets, large island kitchen, separate den/office, indoor laundry room for convenience & a finished 2 car garage for storage. RV parking is available for a monthly fee. Don't wait on this one!

23. 2025-02-07
    listed $142,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Spacious & inviting! This fantastic home is situated in a gated, 55+ community is only minutes from Seven Feathers Casino with easy access to I-5. The spacious interior features generously sized bedrooms, split floor plan with a private primary suite & large attached bathroom with walk-in shower, soaking tub & dual sinks. You'll find plenty of living space plus formal dining room with built-in cabinets, large island kitchen, separate den/office, indoor laundry room for convenience & a finished 2 car garage for storage. RV parking is available for a monthly fee. Don't wait on this one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $7,200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,728
• After-tax cash flow: $6,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Umpqua SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111610
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,796
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7976
• State rank: #51 of 58 in OR

Livability — Canyonville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #11206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyonville, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,462

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.05%
• Current HPI: 339.7648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $126,000 RMLS
• 2025-09-19 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-06-04 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-05-22 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $129,000 RMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $139,000 RMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $142,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,095 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.