1295 S Cawston #146 · Hemet, CA 92545

$128,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 1999 2,614 sqft lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $125k · at est. $293/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Mountain Shadows! This well-maintained Park Model home offers comfort, functionality, and an inviting indoor-outdoor living. A full-length California Room creates the perfect space to relax or entertain, filled with natural light from multiple windows complete with sheer curtains, blinds, and exterior shade awnings. Freshly cleaned carpets in the California room, multiple ceiling fans, and an insulated acoustic drop ceiling make this room friendly and open to many options. Exterior landscaping is ready for you---grab and drink and enjoy your happy hours or cup of coffee with the sunrise. concrete surfaces surrounding the home and a charming front flower bed for a touch of color. A covered carport with an awning provides protected parking and leads to a convenient storage shed featuring built-in shelving and a washer and dryer—adding practicality to everyday living. Inside the main residence, durable luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout. The living room features a ceiling fan with integrated lighting, while the dining area is highlighted by a hanging fixture set against a bright bow window, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen is both functional and bright, offering ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and light-colored cabinets accented with mirrored glass upper doors. White appliances, including a microwave positioned above the propane range, complete the space. The bathroom includes a full-size walk-in fiberglass shower enclosure and a vanity that coordinates with the kitchen cabinetry. A full-width mirror and excellent lighting enhance the space. The bedroom is thoughtfully designed with a raised bed platform, built-in cabinetry above and below the window, and window treatments including a valance and mini blinds for comfort and privacy. Residents also enjoy access to a community clubhouse featuring billiards, shuffleboard, a library, and a large kitchen and meeting space for social gatherings. A pool and hot tub area nearby provide the perfect place to unwind and enjoy the lifestyle this community has to offer. This home offers a great blend of convenience, low maintenance, and comfortable living—ready for you to move in and enjoy.

Key facts

• 2,614 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.9% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $128k implies a 1064% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,320 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.45%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,058
• List price: $128,000
• Delta: 2.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1295 S Cawston Ave #6	0.16mi	1/1.0	700 (0%)	3mo	$115,000	$164	90
1295 S Cawston Ave #118	0.08mi	1/1.0	700 (0%)	8mo	$125,000	$179	89
1295 S Cawston Ave #291	0.16mi	1/1.0	700 (0%)	8mo	$134,000	$191	86
1295 S Cawston Ave #391	0.08mi	1/1.0	750 (+7%)	2mo	$147,500	$197	83
1295 S Cawston #102	0.08mi	1/1.0	650 (-7%)	2mo	$136,000	$209	83
1295 S Cawston Ave #490	0.08mi	2/1.0 (+1)	650 (-7%)	1mo	$94,500	$145	79
1295 S Cawston #67	0.11mi	2/1.0 (+1)	750 (+7%)	4mo	$143,499	$191	74
1295 S Cawston Ave #66	0.11mi	2/1.0 (+1)	750 (+7%)	8mo	$127,000	$169	71
1295 S Cawston #263	0.12mi	1/1.0	600 (-14%)	2mo	$128,000	$213	69
1295 S Cawston Ave #340	0.08mi	1/1.0	600 (-14%)	6mo	$120,000	$200	68
1295 S Cawston #69	0.11mi	1/1.0	600 (-14%)	6mo	$127,000	$212	66
1295 S Cawston Ave #90	0.08mi	1/1.0	800 (+14%)	10mo	$128,000	$160	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,181
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,931
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92545

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$293
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $229	+0% $193	+5% $156	+10% $120
Rent	-10% $69	-5% $131	+0% $193	+5% $254	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $225	base $193	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $293 · $3,516/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $128,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $128,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $128,000 2224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2224 chars)

    Welcome to Mountain Shadows! This well-maintained Park Model home offers comfort, functionality, and an inviting indoor-outdoor living. A full-length California Room creates the perfect space to relax or entertain, filled with natural light from multiple windows complete with sheer curtains, blinds, and exterior shade awnings. Freshly cleaned carpets in the California room, multiple ceiling fans, and an insulated acoustic drop ceiling make this room friendly and open to many options. Exterior landscaping is ready for you---grab and drink and enjoy your happy hours or cup of coffee with the sunrise. concrete surfaces surrounding the home and a charming front flower bed for a touch of color. A covered carport with an awning provides protected parking and leads to a convenient storage shed featuring built-in shelving and a washer and dryer—adding practicality to everyday living. Inside the main residence, durable luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout. The living room features a ceiling fan with integrated lighting, while the dining area is highlighted by a hanging fixture set against a bright bow window, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen is both functional and bright, offering ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and light-colored cabinets accented with mirrored glass upper doors. White appliances, including a microwave positioned above the propane range, complete the space. The bathroom includes a full-size walk-in fiberglass shower enclosure and a vanity that coordinates with the kitchen cabinetry. A full-width mirror and excellent lighting enhance the space. The bedroom is thoughtfully designed with a raised bed platform, built-in cabinetry above and below the window, and window treatments including a valance and mini blinds for comfort and privacy. Residents also enjoy access to a community clubhouse featuring billiards, shuffleboard, a library, and a large kitchen and meeting space for social gatherings. A pool and hot tub area nearby provide the perfect place to unwind and enjoy the lifestyle this community has to offer. This home offers a great blend of convenience, low maintenance, and comfortable living—ready for you to move in and enjoy.

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $132,000 Active 2224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2224 chars)

    Welcome to Mountain Shadows! This well-maintained Park Model home offers comfort, functionality, and an inviting indoor-outdoor living. A full-length California Room creates the perfect space to relax or entertain, filled with natural light from multiple windows complete with sheer curtains, blinds, and exterior shade awnings. Freshly cleaned carpets in the California room, multiple ceiling fans, and an insulated acoustic drop ceiling make this room friendly and open to many options. Exterior landscaping is ready for you---grab and drink and enjoy your happy hours or cup of coffee with the sunrise. concrete surfaces surrounding the home and a charming front flower bed for a touch of color. A covered carport with an awning provides protected parking and leads to a convenient storage shed featuring built-in shelving and a washer and dryer—adding practicality to everyday living. Inside the main residence, durable luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout. The living room features a ceiling fan with integrated lighting, while the dining area is highlighted by a hanging fixture set against a bright bow window, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen is both functional and bright, offering ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and light-colored cabinets accented with mirrored glass upper doors. White appliances, including a microwave positioned above the propane range, complete the space. The bathroom includes a full-size walk-in fiberglass shower enclosure and a vanity that coordinates with the kitchen cabinetry. A full-width mirror and excellent lighting enhance the space. The bedroom is thoughtfully designed with a raised bed platform, built-in cabinetry above and below the window, and window treatments including a valance and mini blinds for comfort and privacy. Residents also enjoy access to a community clubhouse featuring billiards, shuffleboard, a library, and a large kitchen and meeting space for social gatherings. A pool and hot tub area nearby provide the perfect place to unwind and enjoy the lifestyle this community has to offer. This home offers a great blend of convenience, low maintenance, and comfortable living—ready for you to move in and enjoy.

17. 1998-04-09
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $973 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 190.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − HOA: −$3,516
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$99
• After-tax cash flow: $2,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hemet

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1056
• US rank: #25208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 137,670
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,982
• Household income: $63,770
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1813.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 35% Two or more races 17% Black 8% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.25%
• Current HPI: 356.9414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1063.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $128,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $132,000 CRMLS
• 1998-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2014): $335 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.