14585 Tilbury Rd · New Orleans, LA 70128

$1,650

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1978
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot roughly 44 x 90, city lot with rectangular shape

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for two vehicles
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Very good condition
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with traditional construction materials
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Paver patio; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Screens on windows; Stainless steel appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $1,650 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$72,540) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $2k).
• Cap rate 819.9% vs local median 4.4% in New Orleans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in LA, #1,383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D.
• Orleans Parish (urban): math 11% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #69 of 98 in LA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Franklin Elem. Math And Science (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #479 of 646 statewide, top 75%, 747 students, 98% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 68% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 710 units permitted in Orleans Parish in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $50 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $462 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,650

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 86.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 819.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2905.57%
• DSCR: 130.28
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,540
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7575 Shorewood Blvd	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-3%)	14mo	$59,900	$55	68
7631 Avon Park Blvd	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,041 (-7%)	2mo	$85,000	$82	67
7633 Stonewood St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+14%)	2mo	$125,000	$99	59
7500 Avon Park Blvd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,238 (+11%)	15mo	$80,000	$65	56
8016 W Little Woods Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+12%)	20mo	$70,000	$56	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 145.61×
• Total profit: $66,809
• Equity at exit: $246

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 314.25×
• Total profit: $144,722
• Equity at exit: $143

Cash invested: $462 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70128

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2 /mo · $25/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $99

Max offer price $1,650

Occupancy floor 21%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,053	-5% $1,053	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,052	+10% $1,051
Rent	-10% $939	-5% $996	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,109	+10% $1,165
Rate	-1.0pp $1,053	-0.5pp $1,053	base $1,052	+0.5pp $1,052	+1.0pp $1,051

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $412
• Closing costs: $50
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14530 Duane Rd New Orleans, LA	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,450	$1.26	5d	1	0.10mi
14530 Duane Rd New Orleans, LA	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,450	$1.26	4d	1	0.10mi
14509 Duane Rd New Orleans, LA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,518	$1.32	25d	1	0.15mi
14724 Emory Rd New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	25d	1	0.16mi
14900 Curran Rd New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,250	$1.02	25d	1	0.19mi
7808 Sun St New Orleans, LA	4.0	1.5	1500	$1,950	$1.30	25d	1	0.23mi
7825 Star St New Orleans, LA	2.0	1.0	982	$1,250	$1.27	25d	1	0.27mi
7843 Sail St New Orleans, LA	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,200	$0.80	25d	1	0.28mi
7849 Sail St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,200	$0.86	25d	1	0.30mi
7851 Sail St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,200	$0.86	25d	1	0.30mi
14031 Linden St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	25d	1	0.55mi
7501 Briarwood Dr New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	25d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,650 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $1,650 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$92
• − Property taxes: −$25
• − Insurance: −$806
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$48
• Taxable income: $13,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,227
• After-tax cash flow: $9,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orleans Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201170
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -52.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -46.00%
• Median HH income: $37,011
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9271
• State rank: #69 of 98 in LA

Livability — New Orleans

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Orleans, LA
• City population: 338,817
• Population (ZIP): 22,973

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 513,025 people
• By 2030: 575,781 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 700,174 · +36.5%
• By 2050: 826,541 · +61.1%
• By 2075: 1,123,374 · +119.0%
• By 2100: 1,355,609 · +164.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% Asian 5% White 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Vietnamese 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+67.0) · D 82.2% · R 15.2% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.7pp toward D · 2008: 60.3pp · 2024: 67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+67.0 2020: D+68.2 2016: D+66.2 2012: D+62.5 2008: D+60.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.51%
• Current HPI: 247.7131
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-96.6% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $1,650 GSREIN
• 2026-06-10 Listed $1,650 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-11-12 Sold (MLS) $165,000 GSREIN
• 2021-08-08 Pending — GSREIN
• 2021-07-23 Relisted — GSREIN
• 2021-07-23 Price Changed $165,000 GSREIN
• 2021-07-03 Listing Removed — GSREIN
• 2021-05-17 Pending — GSREIN
• 2021-04-13 Price Changed $160,000 GSREIN
• 2021-03-27 Price Changed $165,000 GSREIN
• 2021-03-18 Price Changed $169,000 GSREIN
• 2021-02-27 Listed $170,000 GSREIN
• 2021-02-27 Listed $165,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) $110,000 GSREIN
• 2020-10-25 Pending — GSREIN
• 2020-10-12 Relisted — GSREIN
• 2020-08-06 Pending — GSREIN
• 2020-08-05 Listed $115,000 GSREIN
• 2020-08-05 Listed $115,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-24 Sold (MLS) $80,000 GSREIN
• 2017-04-13 Pending — GSREIN
• 2017-03-16 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2016-11-23 Listed $85,000 GSREIN
• 2016-11-23 Listed $85,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-11-21 Listing Removed — GSREIN
• 2016-05-20 Listed $85,000 GSREIN
• 2016-05-20 Listed $85,000 AcadianaMLS
• 1984-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $48,559 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,149 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.