2909 Falcon Ave · Medford, NY 11763

$265,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1960 8,276 sqft lot Est $487k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming three-bedroom, one-bath ranch that offers both comfort and functionality. The home features an eat-in kitchen, a spacious den with a wood-burning stove, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, and a large laundry room that provides extra convenience. With a cozy layout and plenty of room to grow.

Key facts

• Wood-burning stove
• Large laundry room
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS DEN
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $257k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.5% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#502 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Elementary School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #1,057 of 2,108 statewide, top 51%, 603 students, 40% FRL); Oregon Middle School (reading 75%, 592 students, 54% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 76% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.43%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $487,256
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2203 Knickerbocker Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	904 (0%)	11mo	$510,000	$564	81
2710 Connecticut Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	900 (-0%)	11mo	$410,000	$456	75
2812 Kane Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	864 (-4%)	12mo	$630,000	$729	70
2812 Sipp Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	834 (-8%)	4mo	$550,000	$659	68
2914 Devon Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+13%)	14mo	$552,000	$539	55
2707 Connecticut Ave	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	10mo	$540,000	$540	53
2916 Rhode Island Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+11%)	12mo	$530,000	$530	49
2815 Watch Hill Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+14%)	22mo	$465,000	$450	48
2602 Fire Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	980 (+8%)	21mo	$445,000	$454	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,718
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $52,039
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11763

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$514 /mo · $6,169/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,550

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $795	-5% $720	+0% $645	+5% $570	+10% $495
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $512	+0% $645	+5% $778	+10% $911
Rate	-1.0pp $778	-0.5pp $712	base $645	+0.5pp $576	+1.0pp $506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 Lake Dr Medford, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$3,346	$3.06	2d	10	0.96mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-01-23
   price $265,000
2. 2026-01-18
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-29
   status Active
4. 2025-10-29
   historical
5. 2025-10-24
   listed $465,000 Active
6. 2008-04-02
   soldstatus $279,000
7. 1990-04-02
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,169 · $514/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,169 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$6,169
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,231
• − Management: −$3,231
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable income: $3,879
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$931
• After-tax cash flow: $6,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — Medford

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #8793

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medford, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,973
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,973
• Household income: $120,783
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -531.78%
• Current HPI: 379.1499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+194.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $265,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Listed $465,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $279,000 Public Records
• 1990-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,169 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.