38 Canada De Los Alamos Trl SE · Carnuel, NM 87123

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Other public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1999 1.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable home opportunity discovered on a gated 1.28 acre parcel in the Carnuel valley with quick access in and out of ABQ. Must be FHA 203K, conventional renovation financing, or cash sale due to septic needing replacement. $100 downpayment program available for FHA buyers!! Equal Housing Opportunity, managed by Raine & Co. HUD case #361-480877 / listed UI - uninsurable since repairs to meet min fin stds exceed $10K. HUD homes are sold AS-IS w/ all faults; no pre-closing repairs or payments will be made for any reason. For Utility Turn Ons: Buyer pays all fees to get utilities on w/ accepted bid. Approval must be granted by HUD's field service mgr. Property Condition Report and Property Listing Disclosure available but not to replace home inspections. To submit bids visit HUD Home Store.

Key facts

• 1.28 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 25 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#88 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Albuquerque Public Schools (urban): math 51% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #3 of 29 in NM (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1,316 units permitted in Bernalillo County in 2024 (546 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,675 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.63%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-18,906
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-20,888
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87123

• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,437/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,452

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $155,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $155,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   status $155,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Affordable home opportunity discovered on a gated 1.28 acre parcel in the Carnuel valley with quick access in and out of ABQ. Must be FHA 203K, conventional renovation financing, or cash sale due to septic needing replacement. $100 downpayment program available for FHA buyers!! Equal Housing Opportunity, managed by Raine & Co. HUD case #361-480877 / listed UI - uninsurable since repairs to meet min fin stds exceed $10K. HUD homes are sold AS-IS w/ all faults; no pre-closing repairs or payments will be made for any reason. For Utility Turn Ons: Buyer pays all fees to get utilities on w/ accepted bid. Approval must be granted by HUD's field service mgr. Property Condition Report and Property Listing Disclosure available but not to replace home inspections. To submit bids visit HUD Home Store.

6. 2026-05-15
   status Active 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Affordable home opportunity discovered on a gated 1.28 acre parcel in the Carnuel valley with quick access in and out of ABQ. Must be FHA 203K, conventional renovation financing, or cash sale due to septic needing replacement. $100 downpayment program available for FHA buyers!! Equal Housing Opportunity, managed by Raine & Co. HUD case #361-480877 / listed UI - uninsurable since repairs to meet min fin stds exceed $10K. HUD homes are sold AS-IS w/ all faults; no pre-closing repairs or payments will be made for any reason. For Utility Turn Ons: Buyer pays all fees to get utilities on w/ accepted bid. Approval must be granted by HUD's field service mgr. Property Condition Report and Property Listing Disclosure available but not to replace home inspections. To submit bids visit HUD Home Store.

7. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Affordable home opportunity discovered on a gated 1.28 acre parcel in the Carnuel valley with quick access in and out of ABQ. Must be FHA 203K, conventional renovation financing, or cash sale due to septic needing replacement. $100 downpayment program available for FHA buyers!! Equal Housing Opportunity, managed by Raine & Co. HUD case #361-480877 / listed UI - uninsurable since repairs to meet min fin stds exceed $10K. HUD homes are sold AS-IS w/ all faults; no pre-closing repairs or payments will be made for any reason. For Utility Turn Ons: Buyer pays all fees to get utilities on w/ accepted bid. Approval must be granted by HUD's field service mgr. Property Condition Report and Property Listing Disclosure available but not to replace home inspections. To submit bids visit HUD Home Store.

8. 2026-04-08
   listed $155,000 Active 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Affordable home opportunity discovered on a gated 1.28 acre parcel in the Carnuel valley with quick access in and out of ABQ. Must be FHA 203K, conventional renovation financing, or cash sale due to septic needing replacement. $100 downpayment program available for FHA buyers!! Equal Housing Opportunity, managed by Raine & Co. HUD case #361-480877 / listed UI - uninsurable since repairs to meet min fin stds exceed $10K. HUD homes are sold AS-IS w/ all faults; no pre-closing repairs or payments will be made for any reason. For Utility Turn Ons: Buyer pays all fees to get utilities on w/ accepted bid. Approval must be granted by HUD's field service mgr. Property Condition Report and Property Listing Disclosure available but not to replace home inspections. To submit bids visit HUD Home Store.

9. 2020-12-30
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,437 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,437 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,437
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$85
• After-tax cash flow: $2,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albuquerque Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500060
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 45.00%
• Median HH income: $48,151
• Composite: 53.29/100
• National rank: #1487
• State rank: #3 of 29 in NM

Livability — Carnuel

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #16910

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carnuel, NM
• County: Bernalillo County · 647,165 people
• City population: 43,515
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 42,252
• Household income: $64,359
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1657.0

Population outlook (Bernalillo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 704,528 people
• By 2030: 711,723 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 714,522 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 709,274 · +0.7%
• By 2075: 680,015 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 619,879 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 40% Two or more races 18% Native American 6% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bernalillo

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.2% · R 38.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.3pp no change · 2008: 21.4pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+24.4 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.76%
• Current HPI: 233.3553
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.10%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $155,000 Southwest MLS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,437 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.