7306 Grand Pine Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$155,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 989 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1985 4,200 sqft lot Est $134k · 16% over $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own your lot! No lot rent! Ready for your personal touch! Great 2BR / 2BA doublewide home in a 55+ Community with clubhouse and community pool and LOW HOA fees only $200/year! You'll love Florida living with a friendly community and lots of activities at the clubhouse and pool! You can't beat this deal right now. Currently selling without flooring and paint. Brand New architectural shingle roof 2020 w/ warranty, refurbished AC 2020 w/ warranty, refinished kitchen cabinets. This is a solid home and ready for you to choose your own flooring and paint colors. Work is still in process, so grab this deal while the price is still low! Call today for information or to view this home.

Key facts

• Built in hutch
• Huge walk in closets
• Cathedral ceilings

Tags

• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• BUILT IN HUTCH
• HUGE WALK IN CLOSETS
• TROPICAL OUTDOOR SHOWER ROOM
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1985
• Construction: Construction date: 1985
• Exterior features: Located in the Ponderosa Park subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $156k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,167 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.50%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,515
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7309 Blue Lake Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	960 (-3%)	4mo	$115,000	$120	88
12110 Bonanza Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	962 (-3%)	2mo	$90,000	$94	85
12119 Bonanza Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+7%)	1mo	$120,000	$114	81
7303 Blue Lake Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	960 (-3%)	13mo	$165,000	$172	80
7412 Grand Pine Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	960 (-3%)	12mo	$145,000	$151	79
12201 Bonanza Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+7%)	11mo	$142,500	$135	74
12210 Bonanza Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+7%)	12mo	$178,500	$169	73
7304 Osage Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	896 (-9%)	13mo	$94,000	$105	70
12343 Lariat Way	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,068 (+8%)	13mo	$165,000	$154	66
7318 Allyson St	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+9%)	11mo	$145,000	$134	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-14,514
• Equity at exit: $23,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,054
• Equity at exit: $13,445

Cash invested: $43,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$815
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $765/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,304

Max offer price $155,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $286	+0% $242	+5% $198	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $178	+0% $242	+5% $306	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $320	-0.5pp $281	base $242	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,875
• Closing costs: $4,665
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	18d	1	0.34mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	25d	1	0.36mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	25d	1	0.40mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	5d	1	0.40mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	25d	1	0.47mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	18d	1	0.47mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	25d	1	0.48mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	5d	1	0.56mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	3d	1	0.56mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	5d	1	0.74mi
13113 Bartow St Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	528	$1,190	$2.25	25d	1	0.85mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	4d	1	0.86mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	25d	1	0.92mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	12d	1	0.92mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,468	$1.33	3d	10	0.93mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	0d	1	0.95mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	25d	1	1.02mi
11430 Rohrman Rd Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	5d	1	1.08mi
13128 Beacon Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	25d	1	1.14mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	25d	1	1.15mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	25d	1	1.15mi
13315 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	25d	1	1.22mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	20d	1	1.22mi
11031 Hassle Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	25d	1	1.26mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	18d	1	1.29mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	1.31mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	25d	1	1.41mi
13617 Frances Ave Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,850	$1.80	15d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,500 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,500 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,500 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,500 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,500 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,500 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,500 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,500 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,500 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,500 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on marketlisting id $155,500 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $164,000
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $166,000 Active
17. 2020-11-25
    soldstatus $56,300
18. 2020-11-24
    soldstatus $56,300 Sold 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Own your lot! No lot rent! Ready for your personal touch! Great 2BR / 2BA doublewide home in a 55+ Community with clubhouse and community pool and LOW HOA fees only $200/year! You'll love Florida living with a friendly community and lots of activities at the clubhouse and pool! You can't beat this deal right now. Currently selling without flooring and paint. Brand New architectural shingle roof 2020 w/ warranty, refurbished AC 2020 w/ warranty, refinished kitchen cabinets. This is a solid home and ready for you to choose your own flooring and paint colors. Work is still in process, so grab this deal while the price is still low! Call today for information or to view this home.

19. 2020-11-13
    price $56,300 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Own your lot! No lot rent! Ready for your personal touch! Great 2BR / 2BA doublewide home in a 55+ Community with clubhouse and community pool and LOW HOA fees only $200/year! You'll love Florida living with a friendly community and lots of activities at the clubhouse and pool! You can't beat this deal right now. Currently selling without flooring and paint. Brand New architectural shingle roof 2020 w/ warranty, refurbished AC 2020 w/ warranty, refinished kitchen cabinets. This is a solid home and ready for you to choose your own flooring and paint colors. Work is still in process, so grab this deal while the price is still low! Call today for information or to view this home.

20. 2020-11-13
    status Pending 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Own your lot! No lot rent! Ready for your personal touch! Great 2BR / 2BA doublewide home in a 55+ Community with clubhouse and community pool and LOW HOA fees only $200/year! You'll love Florida living with a friendly community and lots of activities at the clubhouse and pool! You can't beat this deal right now. Currently selling without flooring and paint. Brand New architectural shingle roof 2020 w/ warranty, refurbished AC 2020 w/ warranty, refinished kitchen cabinets. This is a solid home and ready for you to choose your own flooring and paint colors. Work is still in process, so grab this deal while the price is still low! Call today for information or to view this home.

21. 2020-11-06
    listed $67,000 Active 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Own your lot! No lot rent! Ready for your personal touch! Great 2BR / 2BA doublewide home in a 55+ Community with clubhouse and community pool and LOW HOA fees only $200/year! You'll love Florida living with a friendly community and lots of activities at the clubhouse and pool! You can't beat this deal right now. Currently selling without flooring and paint. Brand New architectural shingle roof 2020 w/ warranty, refurbished AC 2020 w/ warranty, refinished kitchen cabinets. This is a solid home and ready for you to choose your own flooring and paint colors. Work is still in process, so grab this deal while the price is still low! Call today for information or to view this home.

22. 2019-05-13
    soldstatus $38,000 Sold 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    55+ Manufactured home in popular Hudson, FL is now ready for new owners. This home is 2/2 with covered side parking pad and driveway. Shed for additional storage. You can enter either through a side door that leads through the laundry room or through the front screened in patio. Once inside you will see an open-concept floor plan with elevated ceilings. Kitchen provides ample counter space and additional seating. Dining area space also large enough for a hutch. Down the hallway there are 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Each room has a lot of closet space. This home is full of potential and welcomes fresh design ideas to personalize it! Ponderosa Park is centrally located near US HWY 19, beaches, medical and restaurants/retail. It also offers a beautiful community pool and other activities such as bocce ball, community dinners and dancing in the clubhouse and even has a library for the residents. This makes a great opportunity to buy something and make it into what YOU want in a great community!

23. 2019-04-27
    status Pending 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    55+ Manufactured home in popular Hudson, FL is now ready for new owners. This home is 2/2 with covered side parking pad and driveway. Shed for additional storage. You can enter either through a side door that leads through the laundry room or through the front screened in patio. Once inside you will see an open-concept floor plan with elevated ceilings. Kitchen provides ample counter space and additional seating. Dining area space also large enough for a hutch. Down the hallway there are 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Each room has a lot of closet space. This home is full of potential and welcomes fresh design ideas to personalize it! Ponderosa Park is centrally located near US HWY 19, beaches, medical and restaurants/retail. It also offers a beautiful community pool and other activities such as bocce ball, community dinners and dancing in the clubhouse and even has a library for the residents. This makes a great opportunity to buy something and make it into what YOU want in a great community!

24. 2019-04-24
    listed $50,000 Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    55+ Manufactured home in popular Hudson, FL is now ready for new owners. This home is 2/2 with covered side parking pad and driveway. Shed for additional storage. You can enter either through a side door that leads through the laundry room or through the front screened in patio. Once inside you will see an open-concept floor plan with elevated ceilings. Kitchen provides ample counter space and additional seating. Dining area space also large enough for a hutch. Down the hallway there are 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Each room has a lot of closet space. This home is full of potential and welcomes fresh design ideas to personalize it! Ponderosa Park is centrally located near US HWY 19, beaches, medical and restaurants/retail. It also offers a beautiful community pool and other activities such as bocce ball, community dinners and dancing in the clubhouse and even has a library for the residents. This makes a great opportunity to buy something and make it into what YOU want in a great community!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,291 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$525/yr (+$44/mo · 68.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥114°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,710
• − Property taxes: −$765
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$4,524
• Taxable income: $420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $2,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+228.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $164,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $166,000 FSBO.com
• 2020-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $56,300 Public Records
• 2020-11-24 Sold (MLS) $56,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-13 Price Changed $56,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-06 Listed $67,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-13 Sold (MLS) $38,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-24 Listed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $765 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.