11263 Fm 16 E · Winona, TX 75706

$182,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 224 Days on market

Built 1964 1.00 ac lot $102/sqft · 30% below area Est $261k · 30% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ALMOST THREE ACRES! We just listed this FIXER UPPER that is located on a very large approximately 2.97-acre lot. This home needs some repairs but has a lot of potential. The location has easy access to I-20 within a quick drive to town for groceries and gas. Local schools like Winona Elementary, Middle, and High—all within about 3 miles in the Winona ISD. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Easy access to i-20
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO I-20
• LOCAL SCHOOLS WITHIN 3 MILES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,246 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Winona ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #539 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,039 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,427
• List price: $182,999
• Delta: -30.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $67,080
• Equity at exit: $123,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $190,568
• Equity at exit: $231,472

Cash invested: $51,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75706

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$960
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,017/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $182,999

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,750
• Closing costs: $5,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $182,999 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,999 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,999 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,999 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,999 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $182,999 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,999 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $182,999 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,999 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $182,999 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $182,999 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $182,999 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $182,999 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,999 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $182,999 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-02-18
    price $182,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    ALMOST THREE ACRES! We just listed this FIXER UPPER that is located on a very large approximately 2.97-acre lot. This home needs some repairs but has a lot of potential. The location has easy access to I-20 within a quick drive to town for groceries and gas. Local schools like Winona Elementary, Middle, and High—all within about 3 miles in the Winona ISD. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

17. 2025-11-07
    listed $185,999 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    ALMOST THREE ACRES! We just listed this FIXER UPPER that is located on a very large approximately 2.97-acre lot. This home needs some repairs but has a lot of potential. The location has easy access to I-20 within a quick drive to town for groceries and gas. Local schools like Winona Elementary, Middle, and High—all within about 3 miles in the Winona ISD. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,017 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,349 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,332/yr (+$111/mo · 66.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,251
• − Property taxes: −$2,017
• − Insurance: −$915
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$5,324
• Taxable loss: −$1,869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$448
• After-tax cash flow: $1,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846230
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,761
• Composite: 28.98/100
• National rank: #6624
• State rank: #539 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winona

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1246
• US rank: #21753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,975

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 40% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 31% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.72%
• Current HPI: 234.9412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $182,999 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $185,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,017 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.