136 Jefferson St · Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1954 6,534 sqft lot Est $495k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * OPEN HOUSE CANCELLED. OFFER ACCEPTED * * CASH ONLY! Set on a corner lot just five blocks from the Saratoga Racetrack, this property is a prime fix-and-flip surrounded by high-value homes. Luxury properties nearby set a strong ARV benchmark, giving investors a clear path to returns. Purchase now, start renovations immediately, and bring the finished home to market as spring buyers and track-season demand push prices to their peak. The layout is built for investors: renovate as a single-family with an income-producing in-law suite, or convert to a cohesive full single-family residence. The in-law offers two private entrances, its own driveway, an updated kitchen, and a primary bedroom w

Key facts

• In-law suite
• Updated kitchen
• Full bath ensuite

Tags

• IN-LAW SUITE
• TWO PRIVATE ENTRANCES
• SEPARATE DRIVEWAY
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FULL BATH ENSUITE
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Caroline Street Elementary School (math 87% / reading 77%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 357 students, 29% FRL); Maple Avenue Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 1,392 students, 27% FRL); Saratoga Springs High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,947 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $300k implies a 1183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $494,874
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Ward St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,565 (+8%)	6mo	$700,000	$447	73
86 Jefferson St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,350 (-7%)	13mo	$290,000	$215	67
8 Clark St	0.43mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,426 (-2%)	15mo	$400,000	$281	58
13 Thoroughbred Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+8%)	9mo	$799,000	$512	58
41 Madison St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+14%)	9mo	$565,000	$342	57
88 Monroe St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+14%)	12mo	$660,000	$400	55
34 Vanderbilt Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,366 (-6%)	21mo	$399,000	$292	53
30 Spa Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+9%)	5mo	$480,000	$305	51
303 Jefferson St	0.27mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	22mo	$415,000	$309	50
27 Thoroughbred Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,620 (+12%)	12mo	$669,900	$414	49
27 Spa Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+13%)	9mo	$520,000	$319	35
70 Mitchell St	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,572 (+9%)	18mo	$799,000	$508	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-18,862
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $73,746
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12866

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,993 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$450 /mo · $5,399/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,718

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $387	-5% $302	+0% $217	+5% $132	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $99	+0% $217	+5% $335	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $368	-0.5pp $293	base $217	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
289 Jefferson St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1240	$18,000	$14.52	15d	1	0.23mi
20 Madison Ave Ste A Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	3.0	1600	$2,800	$1.75	45d	1	0.72mi
1 Spring St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.0	1340	$30,000	$22.39	45d	1	0.88mi
10 Marion Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$4,500	$2.50	25d	1	0.92mi
74 Caroline St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,795	$2.33	25d	1	0.93mi
30 Lake Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$3,190	$3.27	15d	7	1.02mi
425 Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	45d	1	1.03mi
433 Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	45d	1	1.04mi
156 Circular St Unit 3 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1600	$3,250	$2.03	25d	1	1.08mi
55 Railroad Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$3,570	$3.25	20d	2	1.08mi
156 Circular St Unit 9 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,350	$2.47	45d	1	1.09mi
165 Lake Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$15,000	$12.50	25d	1	1.10mi
38 High Rock Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.5	1589	$25,000	$15.73	45d	1	1.11mi
175 Lake Ave #2 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$5,900	$4.92	45d	1	1.12mi
2 Ritchie Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.0	1272	$20,000	$15.72	22d	1	1.29mi
59 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	1.0	1148	$2,500	$2.18	45d	1	1.30mi
106 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.5	1612	$18,000	$11.17	20d	1	1.31mi
110 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,600	$2.32	45d	1	1.32mi
77 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$14,000	$14.21	45d	1	1.32mi
99 1/2 Walworth St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,200	$2.78	45d	1	1.33mi
590 N Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1012	$2,150	$2.12	45d	1	1.34mi
5 Alger St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	1.5	1540	$2,750	$1.79	45d	1	1.35mi
116 West Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1135	$20,000	$17.62	25d	1	1.41mi
68 Marvin St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	25d	1	1.42mi
11 Outlook Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.5	1706	$28,000	$16.41	25d	1	1.43mi
30 Excelsior Ave Unit Townhome Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.5	1150	$2,825	$2.46	45d	1	1.45mi
30 Excelsior Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,625	$2.39	45d	1	1.45mi
30 Excelsior Ave Unit B-5 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,625	$2.62	22d	1	1.45mi
17 Van Dorn St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.5	1342	$18,000	$13.41	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-09
   price $299,900
3. 2025-11-24
   listed $450,000 Active
4. 2025-09-30
   historical
5. 2025-09-26
   price $499,900
6. 2025-09-23
   price $529,900
7. 2025-09-16
   listed $559,900 Active
8. 2016-05-15
   historical
9. 2016-04-21
   listed $247,000 New
10. 2011-08-03
    soldstatus $23,376
11. 2011-08-03
    soldstatus $23,376

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,399 · $450/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,399 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,399
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,874
• − Management: −$2,874
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$2,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$540
• After-tax cash flow: $3,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saratoga Springs City SD
• NCES district ID: 3625770
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,864
• Composite: 60.83/100
• National rank: #818
• State rank: #138 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saratoga Springs, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,057
• Household income: $101,901
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1424.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.78%
• Current HPI: 382.7429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1182.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $299,900 Global MLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $450,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $499,900 Global MLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $529,900 Global MLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $559,900 Global MLS
• 2016-05-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2016-04-21 Listed $247,000 Global MLS
• 2011-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $23,376 Public Records
• 2011-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $23,376 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,399 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.