511 30th St E · Memphis, FL 34221

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2000 5,001 sqft lot Est $260k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect opportunity for investors! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home features a newer roof and plenty of potential. With a little TLC, this property could be transformed into a great rental, flip, or starter home. Don't miss the chance to add value and make it your own!

Key facts

• 5,001 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RSF6
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area about 1,070 (source: public records)
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 100

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.20%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,010
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2411 5th Avenue Dr E	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+3%)	9mo	$257,500	$233	68
1111 26th Street Ct E	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,084 (+1%)	14mo	$215,000	$198	66
2706 6th Ave E	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+8%)	13mo	$287,000	$249	65
820 32nd St E	0.29mi	3/1.0	984 (-8%)	14mo	$269,900	$274	61
616 30th St E	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+8%)	18mo	$260,000	$226	60
2312 4th Ave E	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+4%)	14mo	$277,900	$250	59
528 29th St E	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+14%)	17mo	$179,000	$147	57
3 Shady Ln	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,113 (+4%)	16mo	$112,000	$101	49
3230 6th Ave W	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+0%)	18mo	$305,000	$285	48
3305 6th Ave W	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,068 (-0%)	13mo	$260,000	$243	46
3229 6th Ave W	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-6%)	14mo	$283,000	$280	37
316 20th St E	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+14%)	14mo	$289,900	$237	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,143
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,071
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,863/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,878

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 27th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	23d	1	0.22mi
2615 9th Avenue Dr E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,200	$1.61	23d	1	0.29mi
719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,800	$1.70	10d	1	0.44mi
900 21st St E Palmetto, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,795	$2.24	23d	1	0.49mi
2211 11th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,195	$1.71	16d	1	0.56mi
1910 3rd Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1214	$2,600	$2.14	23d	1	0.67mi
3222 6th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,185	$1.55	23d	1	0.69mi
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	23d	1	0.87mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.88mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	23d	1	0.93mi
1607 18th St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	916	$1,950	$2.13	23d	1	1.02mi
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	23d	1	1.18mi
501 11th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	2d	1	1.39mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	23d	1	1.44mi
2225 14th Ave W Unit 204 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	23d	1	1.44mi
2320 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #211 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$2,500	$2.56	23d	1	1.46mi
3115 Live Oak Ln #30 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1253	$3,695	$2.95	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 264-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,863 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,863 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,863
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$84
• After-tax cash flow: $3,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Memphis, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,863 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.