17070 Marie Village Dr · Deerwood, TX 77306

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 9,483 sqft lot $168/sqft · at area comps Est $173k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in Marie Village, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home stands out w/ the LARGEST LOT in the community & an expansive backyard designed for everyday enjoyment & entertainment. The interior feels open & elevated w/ 9’ ceilings, an 11’ great room ceiling, modern doors & trim, vinyl floors, LED-style recessed lighting & ceiling fans in every room. The kitchen delivers both style & function w/ white soft-close cabinets, 42” upper cabinets, quartz countertops, designer backsplash, upgraded Whirlpool SS appliances, air-fry range & refrigerator. The primary bath is finished w/ custom tile walk-in shower, dual shower heads, quartz counters & upgraded fixtures. Exterior features include full-yard irrigation, a widened driveway, fenced yard, side patio & a storage shed on a concrete slab. Ideally positioned near Downtown Conroe, Lake Conroe & The Woodlands, this home offers comfort, upgrades & location in one complete package.

Key facts

• Vinyl floors
• Ceiling fans
• Modern doors

Tags

• LARGEST LOT
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• MODERN DOORS
• VINYL FLOORS
• LED-STYLE RECESSED LIGHTING
• CEILING FANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,876
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 1.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16842 N N Marie Village Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	3mo	$159,900	$160	88
16499 Valerie Marie Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	11mo	$199,999	$200	78
9706 Marie Village Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	2mo	$167,900	$150	78
16811 North Marie Vlg	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-2%)	18mo	$184,990	$181	77
16348 Jasmine Marie Pl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	9mo	$192,500	$193	75
16635 Colleen Pl	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-4%)	8mo	$139,900	$140	73
16415 Valerie Marie Pl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	18mo	$162,500	$163	68
9900 Opal Stone Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+12%)	9mo	$181,000	$155	68
16511 Colleen Pl	0.28mi	3/2.0	900 (-14%)	1mo	$169,990	$189	64
17038 Marie Village Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	900 (-14%)	14mo	$183,999	$204	63
9726 Ruby Stone Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,113 (+7%)	20mo	$179,568	$161	60
9706 Ruby Stone Way	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	940 (-10%)	18mo	$169,000	$180	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-35,354
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-39,324
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,181/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $155,126

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-63	+0% $-113	+5% $-162	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-179	+0% $-113	+5% $-46	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-68	base $-113	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	1d	1	0.32mi
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	26d	1	0.41mi
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	46d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Pending 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   status $175,000 Pending 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-03-04
    price $184,900 1023-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

    Located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in Marie Village, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home stands out w/ the LARGEST LOT in the community & an expansive backyard designed for everyday enjoyment & entertainment. The interior feels open & elevated w/ 9’ ceilings, an 11’ great room ceiling, modern doors & trim, vinyl floors, LED-style recessed lighting & ceiling fans in every room. The kitchen delivers both style & function w/ white soft-close cabinets, 42” upper cabinets, quartz countertops, designer backsplash, upgraded Whirlpool SS appliances, air-fry range & refrigerator. The primary bath is finished w/ custom tile walk-in shower, dual shower heads, quartz counters & upgraded fixtures. Exterior features include full-yard irrigation, a widened driveway, fenced yard, side patio & a storage shed on a concrete slab. Ideally positioned near Downtown Conroe, Lake Conroe & The Woodlands, this home offers comfort, upgrades & location in one complete package.

12. 2026-01-15
    listed $194,900 Active 1023-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

    Located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in Marie Village, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home stands out w/ the LARGEST LOT in the community & an expansive backyard designed for everyday enjoyment & entertainment. The interior feels open & elevated w/ 9’ ceilings, an 11’ great room ceiling, modern doors & trim, vinyl floors, LED-style recessed lighting & ceiling fans in every room. The kitchen delivers both style & function w/ white soft-close cabinets, 42” upper cabinets, quartz countertops, designer backsplash, upgraded Whirlpool SS appliances, air-fry range & refrigerator. The primary bath is finished w/ custom tile walk-in shower, dual shower heads, quartz counters & upgraded fixtures. Exterior features include full-yard irrigation, a widened driveway, fenced yard, side patio & a storage shed on a concrete slab. Ideally positioned near Downtown Conroe, Lake Conroe & The Woodlands, this home offers comfort, upgrades & location in one complete package.

13. 2025-12-31
    historical
14. 2025-09-05
    listed $194,999 Active
15. 2025-09-05
    historical
16. 2025-07-12
    price $199,998
17. 2025-06-16
    price $203,999
18. 2025-05-29
    listed $208,999 Active
19. 2025-05-21
    historical
20. 2025-05-09
    historical
21. 2024-12-05
    listed $209,000 Active
22. 2023-12-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,181 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,181 · $432/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,181
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,220
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $-337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Deerwood, TX, is in good condition with modern updates and a large lot. It is ready for a cosmetic upgrade to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality in high-traffic areas.
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality in high-traffic areas. ↑
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $194,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $194,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $199,998 HARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $203,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $208,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+46.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,181 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.