100 Camino Encantado · Elephant Butte, NM 87935

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1987 1,916 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This two bedroom one bathroom Lake Cabin sits on a corner lot right around the corner from the Sierra Del Rio Golf Course & the entrance to Elephant Butte State Park. The Home has a fenced in covered carport. The newer roof was installed in 2021, twelve solar panels installed in 2022 & four double pained windows installed in 2011. There is not back up batteries for the solar. This is the perfect get away Home for fishing, golfing, hiking or just having fun at the lake. This property is a short sale and is being sold as- is. There will be no repairs.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Solar panels
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED IN COVERED CARPORT
• NEWER ROOF
• SOLAR PANELS
• DOUBLE PAINED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed (financial details provided)

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces north; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; Builder unknown
• Exterior features: Full fencing; No additional exterior features listed; Solar energy generation

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (12 x 12)
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Double-pane, insulated windows; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($971 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#54 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• T Or C Municipal Schools (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #29 of 29 in NM (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sierra County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.01%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $6,035
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $29,616
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87935

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $186/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $593

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $322	+0% $299	+5% $276	+10% $254
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $261	+0% $299	+5% $337	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $319	base $299	+0.5pp $278	+1.0pp $257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2025-07-01
    price $95,000
16. 2025-07-01
    price $95,000
17. 2025-07-01
    listed $80,000 Active
18. 2025-06-28
    price $86,000
19. 2025-06-28
    price $86,000
20. 2025-06-17
    price $65,000
21. 2025-03-21
    price $65,000
22. 2025-02-08
    price $110,000
23. 2025-02-08
    price $110,000
24. 2024-11-08
    price $100,000
25. 2024-04-04
    price $72,000
26. 2024-03-11
    price $72,000
27. 2024-02-28
    price $92,000
28. 2024-02-13
    price $94,000
29. 2024-02-13
    price $94,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $186 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$454/yr (+$38/mo · 244.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$186
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$932
• − Management: −$932
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$575
• After-tax cash flow: $3,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: T Or C Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502610
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $28,449
• Composite: 20.0/100
• National rank: #8666
• State rank: #29 of 29 in NM

Livability — Elephant Butte

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #13228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elephant Butte, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,848

Population outlook (Sierra County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,498 people
• By 2030: 8,580 · -9.7%
• By 2040: 6,994 · -26.4%
• By 2050: 5,914 · -37.7%
• By 2075: 4,083 · -57.0%
• By 2100: 2,499 · -73.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sierra

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.2% · R 58.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -12.1pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+21.5 2016: R+27.2 2012: R+18.9 2008: R+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.28%
• Current HPI: 143.564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $95,000 NMMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $95,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $80,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $86,000 NMMLS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $86,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $65,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $65,000 NMMLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $110,000 NMMLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $110,000 Southwest MLS
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $100,000 Southwest MLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $72,000 NMMLS
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $72,000 Southwest MLS
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $92,000 Southwest MLS
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $94,000 NMMLS
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $94,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $186 · -45.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.