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4650 Michigan Ave 🏷️ Likely Rental
B Composite 73.17
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +30.0/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • 1% rule +9.1/10.0
  • Rent growth +3.3/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.8/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • Schools +0.5/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$115,000

4650 Michigan Ave · St. Louis, MO 63111
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market
Built 1923 Average condition 3,123 sqft lot $56/sqft · 41% below area Est $196k · 41% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Large and versatile 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home with over 2,000 sq ft of living space! The main level features hardwood floors, high ceilings, an updated kitchen, full bath, and a main-floor bedroom. Upstairs offers 3 generously sized bedrooms, an additional full bath, and a large landing/living area perfect for a second family room, office, or play space. With two separate staircases, the layout provides excellent potential for conversion to a 2-family property. Off-street parking included. Previously rented for $1,695/month. Home needs a new roof and minor repairs but offers tremendous upside and income potential.

Key facts

  • 3,123 sq ft lot
  • Built 1923
  • Listed 59 days

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $115,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$195,777) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
  • Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.9% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Monroe Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 158 students, 98% FRL); Gateway Middle (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #389 of 391 statewide, top 100%, 506 students, 99% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.41%
Cap rate
11.19%
Cash-on-cash
17.48%
DSCR
1.78
GRM
5.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$195,777
List price
$115,000
Delta
-41.26%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
4705 Virginia Ave 0.21mi 4/3.0 2,044 (-1%) 6mo $230,000 $113 78
4721 Tennessee Ave 0.49mi 4/2.0 2,024 (-2%) 1mo $199,000 $98 72
4744 Louisiana Ave 0.42mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,016 (-3%) 1mo $209,900 $104 70
3100 Osceola St 0.34mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,070 (-0%) 10mo $187,900 $91 69
3243 Liberty St 0.18mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,282 (+10%) 1mo $239,900 $105 69
4675 Tennessee Ave 0.47mi 4/2.5 2,048 (-1%) 6mo $299,000 $146 69
4631 Oregon Ave 0.23mi 4/2.0 1,874 (-10%) 9mo $164,900 $88 66
4312 Oregon Ave 0.51mi 4/2.0 2,032 (-2%) 9mo $122,000 $60 65
4509 Idaho Ave 0.29mi 5/2.0 (+1) 2,300 (+11%) 6mo $189,900 $83 58
4608 S Grand Blvd 0.51mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,201 (+6%) 5mo $279,000 $127 54
617 Bellerive Blvd 0.66mi 4/1.5 1,890 (-9%) 8mo $299,900 $159 46
5027 S Grand Blvd 0.61mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,312 (+12%) 4mo $285,000 $123 42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
9.2%
Equity multiple
1.36×
Total profit
$11,711
Equity at exit
$17,147
10-year hold
IRR
18.6%
Equity multiple
2.57×
Total profit
$50,634
Equity at exit
$9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Missouri
81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
24 active · 15 under contract
Months of supply
8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$188,950 ($99/sqft)
Median days on market
64 d
This list price
21% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 63111

Rents YoY
3.3%
Active inventory
177
Price-to-rent
5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,626 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$603
Tax from tax record
$164 /mo · $1,973/yr
Insurance
$48
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$341
Net cashflow
$469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032
Max offer price $115,000
Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $534 -5% $501 +0% $469 +5% $436 +10% $404
Rent -10% $340 -5% $405 +0% $469 +5% $533 +10% $597
Rate -1.0pp $527 -0.5pp $498 base $469 +0.5pp $439 +1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$28,750
Closing costs
$3,450
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 23 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4636 Virginia Ave Saint Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 1500 $1,650 $1.10 37d 1 0.18mi
4450 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO 3.0 1.0 1500 $1,250 $0.83 48d 1 0.25mi
4312 Oregon Ave Saint Louis, MO 4.0 2.0 2032 $2,000 $0.98 10d 1 0.48mi
4417 Tennessee Ave Unit 3bedroom St. Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 2300 $1,200 $0.52 25d 1 0.49mi
4145 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 1656 $1,520 $0.92 93d 1 0.62mi
4135 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 2104 $1,600 $0.76 93d 1 0.64mi
4138 Iowa Ave Saint Louis, MO 4.0 3.0 1546 $2,795 $1.81 10d 1 0.72mi
3637 Meramec St Saint Louis, MO 3.0 1.5 1632 $1,925 $1.18 66d 1 0.73mi
5045 S 37th St Saint Louis, MO 4.0 2.0 2384 $2,000 $0.84 16d 1 0.76mi
4222 S 38th St Unit 4222 St. Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 1836 $1,400 $0.76 69d 1 0.83mi
4222 S 38th St St. Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 1836 $1,300 $0.71 27d 1 0.83mi
2738 Osage St St. Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 1920 $1,825 $0.95 10d 1 0.87mi
3146 Keokuk St Saint Louis, MO 3.0 1.0 1528 $1,500 $0.98 73d 1 0.94mi
3131 Keokuk St St. Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 1500 $1,450 $0.97 37d 1 0.96mi
2229 Alberta St Saint Louis, MO 3.0 2.5 1800 $1,475 $0.82 35d 1 1.08mi
3711 Minnesota Ave Saint Louis, MO 4.0 2.0 1950 $2,100 $1.08 21d 1 1.17mi
3637 S Compton Ave St. Louis, MO 3.0 3.0 1927 $3,200 $1.66 30d 1 1.25mi
3540 Michigan Ave Saint Louis, MO 4.0 2.0 1758 $1,800 $1.02 30d 1 1.36mi
6800 Virginia Ave Unit 1 St. Louis, MO 3.0 1.0 1500 $1,475 $0.98 67d 1 1.40mi
6730 Vermont Ave Saint Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 1534 $1,600 $1.04 64d 1 1.40mi
3511 Minnesota Ave Saint Louis, MO 4.0 2.0 1565 $1,595 $1.02 35d 1 1.42mi
3510 California Ave Saint Louis, MO 3.0 2.0 1800 $1,200 $0.67 93d 1 1.45mi
3658 Salena St Saint Louis, MO 3.0 3.0 2052 $2,000 $0.97 10d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Private ownership
Financial info
Lease not considered

Exterior

Parking
Alley accessDrivewayOff‑street parking
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectric service by AmerenCable available
Home design
Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo levelsPrivate ownership
Construction
Brick constructionFlat roofHas basement (partially finished, partially unfinished, with walk‑out access)
Exterior features
Private yardFront yardBack yardNear public transitChain link fencing

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherFree‑standing electric rangeRefrigerator
Bedrooms
4 bedrooms total1 bedroom on the main level3 bedrooms on the upper level
Flooring
HardwoodLaminate
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms total1 full bathroom on the main level1 full bathroom on the upper level
Heating & cooling
Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioningCeiling fans for additional cooling
Interior features
Ceiling fansHigh ceilingsLaminate countersPantryTwo fireplaces
Laundry & utility
Laundry in basement

Listing history 44 events

  1. 2026-07-13
    days on market $115,000 Active 59 DOM
  2. 2026-07-11
    days on market $115,000 Active 58 DOM
  3. 2026-07-10
    days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
  4. 2026-07-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 56 DOM
  5. 2026-07-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
  6. 2026-07-06
    days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
  7. 2026-07-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
  8. 2026-07-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
  9. 2026-07-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
  10. 2026-07-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
  11. 2026-06-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 47 DOM
  12. 2026-06-29
    days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
  13. 2026-06-28
    days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
  14. 2026-06-27
    days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
  15. 2026-06-26
    days on market $115,000 Active 43 DOM
  16. 2026-06-24
    days on market $115,000 Active 41 DOM
  17. 2026-06-22
    days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
  18. 2026-06-21
    days on market $115,000 Active 38 DOM
  19. 2026-06-18
    days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
  20. 2026-06-17
    days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
  21. 2026-06-16
    days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
  22. 2026-06-15
    days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
  23. 2026-06-13
    days on market $115,000 Active 30 DOM
  24. 2026-06-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
  25. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
  26. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 24 DOM
  27. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
  28. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
  29. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
  30. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
  31. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
  32. 2026-05-14
    listed $115,000 Active 623-char remark
  33. 2024-05-04
    historical $1,595
  34. 2024-04-12
    listed $1,595
  35. 2024-04-10
    historical $1,595
  36. 2024-04-03
    listed $1,595
  37. 2018-12-12
    price $71,900
  38. 2007-11-07
    soldstatus $133,000
  39. 2007-10-30
    soldstatus $76,000
  40. 2006-10-25
    soldstatus $180,000
  41. 2003-12-16
    soldstatus
  42. 2003-10-16
    soldstatus $45,000
  43. 2002-03-20
    soldstatus
  44. 2002-03-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$1,973 · $164/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$1,973 · $164/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$19,508
− Mortgage interest
−$6,442
− Property taxes
−$1,973
− Insurance
−$575
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,561
− Management
−$1,561
− Depreciation
−$3,345
Taxable income
$4,052
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$973
After-tax cash flow
$4,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,360–$31,080 screening

This home offers a good starting point with a good layout and hardwood floors, but it needs a new roof and window replacements to maximize its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof flat membrane Flooring laminate

Deferred maintenance Est. $10,000–$30,000 screening

  • Major Roof (roof) — Flat membrane roofs typically require replacement every 20-30 years.

Repairs flagged

  • Major Roof — Signs of wear and tear visible in satellite image.
  • Moderate Windows — Windows appear old and may need replacement or caulking.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
  • Both Replace old windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics.
  • Both Replace roof — Extends the life of the home and boosts value.
  • Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting buyers/tenants.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 5/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Monroe Elem. F MO #1,099/1,115 Nat'l #41,309/41,679 Middle Acad Of Entre Stdy@louverture F MO #384/391 Nat'l #13,760/14,009 High Roosevelt High F MO #517/521 Nat'l #16,861/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
St. Louis City
NCES district ID
2929280
Math proficiency
10% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
18% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income
$35,685
Composite
11.54/100
National rank
#9699
State rank
#312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place
St. Louis, MO
County
Saint Louis City · 315,737 people
City population
283,259
Metro
St. Louis, MO-IL
Population (ZIP)
18,851
Household income
$47,039
Rent vs Own
61.6% rent · 38.4% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
315,737 people
By 2030
313,865 · -0.6%
By 2040
305,439 · -3.3%
By 2050
296,529 · -6.1%
By 2075
271,028 · -14.2%
By 2100
255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
Race & ethnicity
Black 42% White 41% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 6%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
7% · Canada, India
Languages at home
90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

2024 margin
Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
2008→2024 swing
-3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
All cycles
2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+155.6% since first listed
13 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-14 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2024-05-04 Rental Removed $1,595 APPFOLIO
  • 2024-04-12 Listed for Rent $1,595 APPFOLIO
  • 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $1,595 APPFOLIO
  • 2024-04-03 Listed for Rent $1,595 APPFOLIO
  • 2018-12-12 Price Changed $71,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2007-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
  • 2007-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
  • 2006-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
  • 2003-12-16 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2003-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
  • 2002-03-20 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2002-03-20 Sold (Public Records) Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,973 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…