4650 Michigan Ave · St. Louis, MO 63111

$115,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1923 3,123 sqft lot $56/sqft · 41% below area Est $195k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large and versatile 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home with over 2,000 sq ft of living space! The main level features hardwood floors, high ceilings, an updated kitchen, full bath, and a main-floor bedroom. Upstairs offers 3 generously sized bedrooms, an additional full bath, and a large landing/living area perfect for a second family room, office, or play space. With two separate staircases, the layout provides excellent potential for conversion to a 2-family property. Off-street parking included. Previously rented for $1,695/month. Home needs a new roof and minor repairs but offers tremendous upside and income potential.

Key facts

• 3,123 sq ft lot
• Built 1923
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private ownership
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Alley access; Driveway; Off‑street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Private ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Flat roof; Has basement (partially finished, partially unfinished, with walk‑out access)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front yard; Back yard; Near public transit; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level; 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for additional cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Laminate counters; Pantry; Two fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $115,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$195,161) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monroe Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 158 students, 98% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.87%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,161
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -41.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4705 Virginia Ave	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,044 (-1%)	5mo	$230,000	$113	80
3100 Osceola St	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,070 (-0%)	8mo	$187,900	$91	70
4675 Tennessee Ave	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,048 (-1%)	5mo	$299,000	$146	70
4639 Virginia Ave	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,980 (-4%)	9mo	$215,000	$109	68
4631 Oregon Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,874 (-10%)	8mo	$164,900	$88	67
4312 Oregon Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,032 (-2%)	8mo	$122,000	$60	66
4509 Idaho Ave	0.29mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (+11%)	4mo	$189,900	$83	60
4244 Oregon Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,028 (-2%)	11mo	$179,900	$89	56
4608 S Grand Blvd	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,201 (+6%)	4mo	$279,000	$127	56
617 Bellerive Blvd	0.66mi	4/1.5	1,890 (-9%)	6mo	$299,900	$159	48
5027 S Grand Blvd	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,312 (+12%)	2mo	$285,000	$123	44
5046 S 37th St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-11%)	8mo	$115,000	$62	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,512
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $37,153
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63111

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,973/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4450 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,100	$0.73	4d	1	0.25mi
4312 Oregon Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,000	$0.98	1d	1	0.48mi
4145 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,520	$0.92	43d	1	0.62mi
4135 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2104	$1,600	$0.76	43d	1	0.64mi
3637 Meramec St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1632	$1,925	$1.18	17d	1	0.73mi
4222 S 38th St Unit 4222 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,400	$0.76	20d	1	0.83mi
3146 Keokuk St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1528	$1,500	$0.98	23d	1	0.94mi
3131 Keokuk St #3131 Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	14d	1	0.96mi
3540 Michigan Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1758	$1,800	$1.02	1d	1	1.36mi
6800 Virginia Ave Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	17d	1	1.40mi
6730 Vermont Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,600	$1.04	14d	1	1.40mi
3510 California Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,200	$0.67	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $115,000 Active 623-char remark
15. 2024-05-04
    historical $1,595
16. 2024-04-12
    listed $1,595
17. 2024-04-10
    historical $1,595
18. 2024-04-03
    listed $1,595
19. 2018-12-12
    price $71,900
20. 2007-11-07
    soldstatus $133,000
21. 2007-10-30
    soldstatus $76,000
22. 2006-10-25
    soldstatus $180,000
23. 2003-12-16
    soldstatus
24. 2003-10-16
    soldstatus $45,000
25. 2002-03-20
    soldstatus
26. 2002-03-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,973 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,973 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,973
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$676
• After-tax cash flow: $3,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,851
• Household income: $47,039
• Rent vs Own: 61.6% rent · 38.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 41% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.80%
• Current HPI: 169.4644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+155.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-04 Rental Removed $1,595 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-12 Listed for Rent $1,595 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $1,595 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-03 Listed for Rent $1,595 APPFOLIO
• 2018-12-12 Price Changed $71,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,973 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.