1281 Surrey Ln · Elgin, SC 29045

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,645 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1992 0.53 ac lot Est $253k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market to no fault of the seller. Don't miss this single story in the heart of Elgin close to shopping and I-20 on . 53 acres. This property is sold 'as-is' with TLC needed. The living space has hardwood flooring, fireplace, cathedral ceilings and opens to the eat in kitchen. The primary bedroom offers a private bath with handicap shower, walk in closet and office that opens to the back deck. Additionally there are two other bedrooms with a shared bath. The exterior of the home boasts a large front porch the length of the front of the home, a spacious back deck in need of repair and side entry garage. Sold "as-is". Disclaimer: CMLS has not reviewed and, therefore, doe

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Office
• Private bath

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FIREPLACE
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• OFFICE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached side-entry garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Deck; Partial gutters; Paved road frontage; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Formica countertops; Wood stained cabinets; Pantry; Tile flooring in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom with private bath, walk-in closet and ceiling fan; Two additional main-level bedrooms sharing a bath
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile in kitchen
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings in the living room; Fireplace; Hardwood floors in living areas; Built-in range with counter cooktop
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry in heated space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.2% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#302 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kershaw 01 (rural): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in SC (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blaney Elementary (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #199 of 597 statewide, top 35%, 760 students, 100% FRL); Lugoff-Elgin High (math 65% / reading 89%, grade A-, #28 of 196 statewide, top 16%, 1,744 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 49% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kershaw 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 491 units permitted in Kershaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kershaw County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $159k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,052 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.32%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,330
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
724 S Long Star Way	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,617 (-2%)	23mo	$249,507	$154	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-18,869
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,038
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29045

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,111/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,686

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $334	+0% $272	+5% $210	+10% $148
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $192	+0% $272	+5% $352	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $382	-0.5pp $327	base $272	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1505 Englewood Rd Elgin, SC	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,850	$0.97	24d	1	0.62mi
1505A Englewood Rd Elgin, SC	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,850	$0.97	24d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   status Active
3. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-13
   historical Active - Contingent
5. 2026-04-03
   price $219,000
6. 2026-03-06
   listed $240,000 Active
7. 2008-07-11
   soldstatus $158,900
8. 2002-08-22
   soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,111 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$137/yr (+$11/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,111
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$91
• After-tax cash flow: $3,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kershaw 01
• NCES district ID: 4502550
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,585
• Composite: 37.66/100
• National rank: #4371
• State rank: #25 of 80 in SC

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #23258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, SC
• County: Kershaw County · 47,655 people
• City population: 31,372
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 31,372
• Household income: $87,366
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 204.0

Population outlook (Kershaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,683 people
• By 2030: 69,374 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 71,936 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 73,292 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 75,762 · +11.9%
• By 2100: 72,620 · +7.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kershaw

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.3% · R 63.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+23.1 2016: R+24.8 2012: R+18.6 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.60%
• Current HPI: 209.2469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+75.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $219,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $240,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2008-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $158,900 Public Records
• 2002-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,111 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.