1011 Marley Cannon Rd · Dublin, GA 31021

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,953 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 2009 0.70 ac lot $102/sqft · 32% below area Est $295k · 32% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming rustic retreat with distinctive architectural character, featuring warm wood siding, a striking brick chimney unique sloped rooflines that look like a cabin. Inviting outdoor spaces, including covered porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying nature. Cozy cabin atmosphere three bedrooms and two and half baths peaceful and country inspired ambiance.

Key facts

• Warm wood siding
• Covered porch
• Outdoor spaces

Tags

• WARM WOOD SIDING
• STRIKING BRICK CHIMNEY
• UNIQUE SLOPED ROOFLINES
• COVERED PORCH
• OUTDOOR SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (31.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (43.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#322 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Laurens County (rural): math 45% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #42 of 174 in GA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Laurens County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Laurens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,120 (43.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.56%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,667
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -32.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1030 Marley Cannon Rd	0.09mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,041 (+4%)	10mo	$429,000	$210	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-56,682
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-85,442
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31021

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,279/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,568

Max offer price $137,650

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    price $200,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Charming rustic retreat with distinctive architectural character, featuring warm wood siding, a striking brick chimney unique sloped rooflines that look like a cabin. Inviting outdoor spaces, including covered porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying nature. Cozy cabin atmosphere three bedrooms and two and half baths peaceful and country inspired ambiance.

18. 2026-02-09
    listed $250,000 New 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Charming rustic retreat with distinctive architectural character, featuring warm wood siding, a striking brick chimney unique sloped rooflines that look like a cabin. Inviting outdoor spaces, including covered porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying nature. Cozy cabin atmosphere three bedrooms and two and half baths peaceful and country inspired ambiance.

19. 2025-09-08
    listed $240,000 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Our home is user friendly, pet friendly, spacious, great place to relax outdoors enjoying the sounds, sights of country living. Enough room to take a nice stretch outdoors, small enough not to be overwhelmed by hustle. The home is a single family dwelling with a split loft upstairs, free standing walk around on the top floor, two bedrooms upstairs, one 3/4 bath. Has sliding doors upstairs for a future upstairs deck. Spacious living area downstairs, master bed, bathroom with Jacuzzi tub and shower, laundry room, small walk in closet, double sinks, one 1/4 bath off kitchen. Central heat pump and air. Fire ring, bbq area, deep well. Ceiling fans in all rooms except bathrooms. Call 478 246 9801 serious inquiries only. Thank you.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,840 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$561/yr (+$47/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,279
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Laurens County
• NCES district ID: 1301890
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,220
• Composite: 35.06/100
• National rank: #5030
• State rank: #42 of 174 in GA

Livability — Dublin

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #322
• US rank: #17202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Laurens County · 28,190 people
• City population: 28,190
• Metro: Dublin, GA
• Population (ZIP): 28,190
• Household income: $55,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1279.0

Population outlook (Laurens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,685 people
• By 2030: 44,056 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 40,270 · -11.9%
• By 2050: 36,094 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 26,275 · -42.5%
• By 2100: 17,160 · -62.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 45% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Laurens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.7) · D 33.5% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -32.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.7 2020: R+28.2 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+22.7 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.86%
• Current HPI: 186.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Metro: Dublin, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $200,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $240,000 Fizber.com

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,279 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.