29506 Gordon Sevilla St · Fulshear, TX 77494

$290,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,082 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,124 sqft lot $139/sqft · 16% below area Est $344k · 16% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Walking distance from the elementary school, tennis courts and park. Highly demanded Kingstone floorplan. This one-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2 car garage. The entry opens to the guest bedrooms, a bath with a linen closet. The Center kitchen with beautiful countertops and stainless steel appliances that all convey with the property. The open-concept floorplan boasts a large combined family room and dining area. The primary suite features a sloped ceiling and an spacious master bath with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. The back yard features a covered patio.

Key facts

• Tennis courts
• Center kitchen
• Park

Tags

• TENNIS COURTS
• PARK
• CENTER KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LARGE COMBINED FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 1037 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 11983% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,246 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.50%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,156
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -15.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3814 Lila Lake Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,824 (-12%)	2mo	$300,000	$164	65
30115 Broeder Way Ct	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-2%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	63
3614 Turnpike Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-2%)	2mo	$322,990	$158	62
3622 Marino Mile Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-2%)	2mo	$314,990	$154	59
3722 Daintree Park Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-11%)	1mo	$325,000	$176	56
3618 Turnpike Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,251 (+8%)	2mo	$328,990	$146	50
3802 Turnpike Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,251 (+8%)	2mo	$334,990	$149	48
3602 Marino Mile Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,251 (+8%)	2mo	$319,990	$142	46
3642 Marino Mile Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,251 (+8%)	2mo	$324,990	$144	46
3703 Turnpike Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-15%)	2mo	$314,990	$177	44
3622 Turnpike Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-15%)	1mo	$304,990	$172	44
30118 Honey Hill Ct	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-15%)	1mo	$314,990	$177	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-78,349
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-128,244
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77494

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 1037
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$767 /mo · $9,200/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,207

Max offer price $224,246

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-208	-5% $-290	+0% $-372	+5% $-454	+10% $-536
Rent	-10% $-588	-5% $-480	+0% $-372	+5% $-264	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-226	-0.5pp $-298	base $-372	+0.5pp $-447	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29418 Sydney Stone Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2571	$3,490	$1.36	45d	1	0.21mi
3711 Daintree Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1892	$2,101	$1.11	21d	1	0.53mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,292	$1.37	3d	17	0.65mi
4015 Prairie Landing Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2853	$2,850	$1.00	45d	1	0.79mi
29202 Jarvis Bay Pass Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1563	$2,200	$1.41	7d	1	0.84mi
29018 Innes Park Pl Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2855	$2,266	$0.79	14d	1	1.00mi
30131 Ousel Falls Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,150	$1.37	45d	1	1.00mi
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	45d	1	1.03mi
3551 Shearwater St Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,500	$1.22	45d	1	1.24mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,397	$1.40	0d	24	1.25mi
3702 Mirabeau Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5	1875	$3,776	$2.01	0d	1	1.36mi
29655 Jordan Crossing Blvd Brookshire, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,434	$2.33	0d	29	1.40mi
4623 Cold Stream Ct Fulshear, TX	3.0	3.0	2646	$3,100	$1.17	7d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $290,000 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Walking distance from the elementary school, tennis courts and park. Highly demanded Kingstone floorplan. This one-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2 car garage. The entry opens to the guest bedrooms, a bath with a linen closet. The Center kitchen with beautiful countertops and stainless steel appliances that all convey with the property. The open-concept floorplan boasts a large combined family room and dining area. The primary suite features a sloped ceiling and an spacious master bath with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. The back yard features a covered patio.

16. 2026-03-13
    historical $2,400
17. 2026-02-19
    listed $2,400
18. 2026-02-18
    listed $339,990 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Walking distance from the elementary school, tennis courts and park. Highly demanded Kingstone floorplan. This one-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2 car garage. The entry opens to the guest bedrooms, a bath with a linen closet. The Center kitchen with beautiful countertops and stainless steel appliances that all convey with the property. The open-concept floorplan boasts a large combined family room and dining area. The primary suite features a sloped ceiling and an spacious master bath with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. The back yard features a covered patio.

19. 2024-09-03
    historical $2,380
20. 2024-09-02
    historical
21. 2024-08-29
    price $2,380
22. 2024-08-14
    status Active
23. 2024-08-10
    historical
24. 2024-08-09
    price $349,000
25. 2024-07-11
    listed $360,000 Active
26. 2024-06-09
    listed $2,600
27. 2024-02-02
    historical $2,800
28. 2023-12-16
    listed $2,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,200 · $767/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,200 · $767/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$9,200
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,626
• − Management: −$2,626
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$9,257
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,222
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Katy, TX, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's well-maintained and ready for a new owner, with minor cosmetic improvements that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and can prevent water damage, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and can prevent water damage, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 140,157
• Household income: $148,720
• Rent vs Own: 29.1% rent · 70.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3390.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 24% Two or more races 18% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.62%
• Current HPI: 229.7189
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.53%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10257.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Rental Removed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed for Rent $2,400 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2024-09-03 Rental Removed $2,380 HARMLS
• 2024-09-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $2,380 HARMLS
• 2024-08-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-08-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-11 Listed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-09 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2024-02-02 Rental Removed $2,800 HARMLS
• 2023-12-16 Listed for Rent $2,800 HARMLS

Property tax history

+119.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,200 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.