228 Aspen · Cedar Point, TX 77351

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2004 10,001 sqft lot $121/sqft · 89% above area $47/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home on two lots in Cedar Point's lakeside community. Enjoy walking distance to Lake Livingston and all the amenities of a gated community - pool, clubhouse, boat launches, playground, fishing pier, and more! The property features a chain link fenced yard, 50 amp RV hookup, storage building, and detached garage/shop. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and dining, this home is perfect for a vacation retreat or full-time living. Don't forget to bring your Real Estate Agent for entry through the manned gate. Come see for yourself!

Key facts

• Gated community
• 50 amp rv hookup
• Clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• 50 AMP RV HOOKUP
• STORAGE BUILDING
• DETACHED GARAGE/SHOP
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,509 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.03%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,370
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 89.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
609 Cedar Point Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,060 (-8%)	7mo	$149,900	$141	78
521 Plum Tree	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	4mo	$119,000	$103	76
629 Cedar Point Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,004 (-13%)	15mo	$145,000	$144	65
512 Plum Tree	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	19mo	$199,900	$167	60
486 Mockingbird Hls	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+2%)	20mo	$275,000	$234	56
445 Loop Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,076 (-7%)	6mo	$215,000	$200	52
149 Curry St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-12%)	7mo	$129,000	$128	51
165 Black Walnut	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-6%)	23mo	$155,000	$144	48
233 Mesquite	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-12%)	21mo	$80,000	$78	46
278 Mesquite	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+14%)	22mo	$255,000	$194	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,921
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $20,430
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $316/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,089

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $139,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home on two lots in Cedar Point's lakeside community. Enjoy walking distance to Lake Livingston and all the amenities of a gated community - pool, clubhouse, boat launches, playground, fishing pier, and more! The property features a chain link fenced yard, 50 amp RV hookup, storage building, and detached garage/shop. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and dining, this home is perfect for a vacation retreat or full-time living. Don't forget to bring your Real Estate Agent for entry through the manned gate. Come see for yourself!

19. 2026-03-18
    soldstatus Closed 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on two lots in the desirable Lakeside Community of Cedar point. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to Lake Livingston, all inside a gated community offering exceptional amenities, including two community pools, clubhouse, pavilion, boat launches, playground, fishing pier, and more. This home is being SOLD FULLY FURNISHED, making it truly move-in ready. The property features a chain-link fenced yard with two sets of double, gates, ideal foe easy access and storage. A 16x32 detached garage/shop provides ample space for a boat, lake toys, lawn equip.,and more, along with a 50-amp RV hookup and an additional 10x10 storage shed. There is also covered parking, and newly added front porch covering. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and local eateries, this property is perfectly suited for weekend lake retreats or full time residence. Comfortable, functional, and ready to enjoy-this is lake living at it's best!

20. 2026-02-25
    status Pending 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on two lots in the desirable Lakeside Community of Cedar point. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to Lake Livingston, all inside a gated community offering exceptional amenities, including two community pools, clubhouse, pavilion, boat launches, playground, fishing pier, and more. This home is being SOLD FULLY FURNISHED, making it truly move-in ready. The property features a chain-link fenced yard with two sets of double, gates, ideal foe easy access and storage. A 16x32 detached garage/shop provides ample space for a boat, lake toys, lawn equip.,and more, along with a 50-amp RV hookup and an additional 10x10 storage shed. There is also covered parking, and newly added front porch covering. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and local eateries, this property is perfectly suited for weekend lake retreats or full time residence. Comfortable, functional, and ready to enjoy-this is lake living at it's best!

21. 2026-01-07
    listed $185,000 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on two lots in the desirable Lakeside Community of Cedar point. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to Lake Livingston, all inside a gated community offering exceptional amenities, including two community pools, clubhouse, pavilion, boat launches, playground, fishing pier, and more. This home is being SOLD FULLY FURNISHED, making it truly move-in ready. The property features a chain-link fenced yard with two sets of double, gates, ideal foe easy access and storage. A 16x32 detached garage/shop provides ample space for a boat, lake toys, lawn equip.,and more, along with a 50-amp RV hookup and an additional 10x10 storage shed. There is also covered parking, and newly added front porch covering. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and local eateries, this property is perfectly suited for weekend lake retreats or full time residence. Comfortable, functional, and ready to enjoy-this is lake living at it's best!

22. 2022-04-12
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2022-03-04
    status Pending
24. 2022-02-28
    status Option Pending
25. 2021-10-14
    price $130,000
26. 2021-08-23
    listed $139,900 Active
27. 2000-01-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $316 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,228/yr (+$186/mo · 705.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$316
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,401
• − Management: −$1,401
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$313
• After-tax cash flow: $3,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cedar Point

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1509
• US rank: #25794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Point, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-14 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-23 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2000-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $316 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.