5565 State Route 104 · Oswego, NY 13126

$149,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1859 1.98 ac lot Est $161k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remember when you visited Grandma's house & played in the Barn? Well, this property can provide all of those memories & more. The Lot is approximately 2 acres w/ a well-built, 2-story Barn (40' by 31'). Tremendous potential for workshop, studio, hobby area or simply use it to store cars, tractor & traditional garden tools. New Furnace & Roof installed on the house in 2018; Barn Roof 2010. Backyard offers an open pasture w/ trees & shrubbery at the perimeter to provide privacy. Home is a sturdy, plank-built structure w/ a screened-in sun room & 4 bedrooms. There are Maple Hardwoods in the dining room, Fir Wood Floors in the living room & Wide Pine Upstairs. Potential Galore with a little TLC & some dedicated time to renovation. All of this is conveniently located in a rural setting, yet close to shopping. It is an Easy Commute to the Energy Plants, Novelis, SUNY, Oswego Hospital, Coast Guard & Border Patrol. Come make an offer & be able to serve Holiday Dinner in your new home.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Screened in sunroom
• 2 story barn

Tags

• 2 ACRES OF LAND
• 2 STORY BARN
• METAL ROOF
• SCREENED IN SUNROOM
• COUNTRY EAT IN KITCHEN
• DOUBLE STAINLESS SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.98 acre wooded, rectangular lot with 181 x 528 dimensions; Main thoroughfare road frontage

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity, storage and workshop space; 4-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing structure; Entry includes porch
• Construction: Aluminum and wood siding; Metal and shingle roof; Stone foundation; Partial crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Private yard; Dirt and gravel driveway; Barn(s) and outbuilding; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and range; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout; Country kitchen features
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; Main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Eat-in kitchen; Country kitchen; Storage; Natural woodwork; Bathroom rough-in; Workshop; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1859 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1859 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.71%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,095
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5478 State Route 104	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,629 (+2%)	20mo	$128,550	$79	53
5702 State Route 104	0.65mi	4/1.0	1,388 (-13%)	17mo	$140,000	$101	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $21,884
• Equity at exit: $27,387

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $112,095
• Equity at exit: $21,779

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,440/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,437

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $522	+0% $480	+5% $437	+10% $395
Rent	-10% $318	-5% $399	+0% $480	+5% $560	+10% $641
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $518	base $480	+0.5pp $441	+1.0pp $401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 691-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,440 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,440 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,440
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,657
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$878
• After-tax cash flow: $4,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-31 Sold (MLS) $118,000 CNYIS
• 2022-12-26 Pending — CNYIS
• 2022-12-06 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2022-10-27 Listed $119,900 CNYIS
• 2012-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $84,800 Public Records
• 2012-10-25 Sold (MLS) $84,800 CNYIS
• 2011-08-22 Listed $89,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+21.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,440 · +22.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.