538 Carrol Dr · Sumter, SC 29150-4414

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1957 0.46 ac lot Est $123k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special | Fix & Flip or Rental Opportunity in Sumter Attention investors and visionaries—538 Carrol Drive is your next value-add opportunity. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,442 square feet with a functional layout and original hardwood floors ready to be restored. The property is being sold AS-IS and will require renovations, including HVAC installation, repairs to windows and walls, and full cosmetic updates. With the right improvements, this home has strong potential for resale or long-term rental income. Situated on a generous lot with plenty of room to create your ideal outdoor space, the property offers additional upside both inside and out. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this is a great opportunity to invest in a growing Sumter market. Cash or renovation loans preferred, but not limited to. Bring your vision and unlock the potential!

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Brick exterior (brick on all sides above foundation); Paved road access; Corner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level with hardwood floors; Two additional bedrooms with hardwood floors
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in living areas, dining room, and bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Hardwood floors throughout main living areas and bedrooms; Formal dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Millwood Elementary (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #276 of 597 statewide, top 48%, 682 students, 100% FRL); Lakewood High (math 12% / reading 67%, grade F, #180 of 196 statewide, top 93%, 1,036 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 23% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sumter 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.14%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,570
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
701 Wen Le Dr	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,465 (+2%)	5mo	$125,000	$85	82
110 Phifer St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,427 (-1%)	1mo	$140,000	$98	68
108 Emily Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,271 (-12%)	16mo	$87,000	$68	63
606 E Charlotte Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,250 (-13%)	11mo	$109,000	$87	62
313 Pinckney St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,450 (+1%)	7mo	$120,000	$83	62
107 Emily Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,237 (-14%)	15mo	$79,500	$64	59
401 Bagnal Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,237 (-14%)	15mo	$82,680	$67	59
16 Wilson St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,310 (-9%)	6mo	$49,000	$37	47
206 Crosswell Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,579 (+10%)	3mo	$110,000	$70	44
40 Wilson St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-6%)	17mo	$115,000	$85	44
70 Lemmon St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+12%)	2mo	$139,900	$87	40
901 Mathis St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+9%)	10mo	$157,000	$100	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $41,199
• Equity at exit: $42,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $104,844
• Equity at exit: $65,761

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29150-4414

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $207/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $702

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $522	-5% $495	+0% $468	+5% $441	+10% $301
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $417	+0% $468	+5% $519	+10% $570
Rate	-1.0pp $516	-0.5pp $492	base $468	+0.5pp $443	+1.0pp $418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $94,900 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $94,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $94,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $94,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $94,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-04-29
   listed $94,900 Active
7. 2026-04-20
   listed $94,900 Active 912-char remark

   Show marketing remark (912 chars)

   Investor Special | Fix & Flip or Rental Opportunity in Sumter Attention investors and visionaries—538 Carrol Drive is your next value-add opportunity. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,442 square feet with a functional layout and original hardwood floors ready to be restored. The property is being sold AS-IS and will require renovations, including HVAC installation, repairs to windows and walls, and full cosmetic updates. With the right improvements, this home has strong potential for resale or long-term rental income. Situated on a generous lot with plenty of room to create your ideal outdoor space, the property offers additional upside both inside and out. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this is a great opportunity to invest in a growing Sumter market. Cash or renovation loans preferred, but not limited to. Bring your vision and unlock the potential!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $207 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$334/yr (+$28/mo · 161.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$207
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $4,288
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,029
• After-tax cash flow: $4,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter 01
• NCES district ID: 4503902
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,423
• Composite: 19.45/100
• National rank: #8775
• State rank: #64 of 80 in SC

Livability — Sumter

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #19754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sumter, SC

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,585 people
• By 2030: 102,282 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 96,258 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 89,592 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 74,715 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 60,235 · -42.4%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $94,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $94,900 SBOR

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $207 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.