904 N Church St · Ellisville, MS 39437

$174,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1974 $147/sqft · 40% above area Est $156k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a beautifully refreshed 4 bedroom, 2 bath home where every update has been chosen to create comfort, style, and ease. Light, inviting living spaces flow seamlessly into a modern kitchen and well-appointed bedrooms, creating a truly move in ready home. Outdoors, the fully fenced backyard becomes your private retreat perfect for quiet mornings, weekend gatherings, or letting little ones and pets play freely. Ideally positioned just minutes from Ellisville, this home offers the best of both worlds: everyday convenience paired with a peaceful, welcoming setting. A thoughtfully updated property that feels instantly like home. Reach out to an agent for a private tour today!

Key facts

• Private retreat
• Peaceful setting
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• MOVE IN READY
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#123 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Jones Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #152 of 375 statewide, top 41%, 1,070 students, 100% FRL); South Jones High School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #56 of 197 statewide, top 29%, 1,306 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 59% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $174k implies a 266% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,522 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.00%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,913
• List price: $174,000
• Delta: 11.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,932
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,621
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39437

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,310

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $212	+0% $162	+5% $113	+10% $64
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $103	+0% $162	+5% $222	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $207	base $162	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $174,000 Pending 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $174,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $174,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $174,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $174,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-05-05
    price $174,000 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Step into a beautifully refreshed 4 bedroom, 2 bath home where every update has been chosen to create comfort, style, and ease. Light, inviting living spaces flow seamlessly into a modern kitchen and well-appointed bedrooms, creating a truly move in ready home. Outdoors, the fully fenced backyard becomes your private retreat perfect for quiet mornings, weekend gatherings, or letting little ones and pets play freely. Ideally positioned just minutes from Ellisville, this home offers the best of both worlds: everyday convenience paired with a peaceful, welcoming setting. A thoughtfully updated property that feels instantly like home. Reach out to an agent for a private tour today!

13. 2026-04-17
    price $175,500 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Step into a beautifully refreshed 4 bedroom, 2 bath home where every update has been chosen to create comfort, style, and ease. Light, inviting living spaces flow seamlessly into a modern kitchen and well-appointed bedrooms, creating a truly move in ready home. Outdoors, the fully fenced backyard becomes your private retreat perfect for quiet mornings, weekend gatherings, or letting little ones and pets play freely. Ideally positioned just minutes from Ellisville, this home offers the best of both worlds: everyday convenience paired with a peaceful, welcoming setting. A thoughtfully updated property that feels instantly like home. Reach out to an agent for a private tour today!

14. 2026-04-02
    listed $178,000 Active 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Step into a beautifully refreshed 4 bedroom, 2 bath home where every update has been chosen to create comfort, style, and ease. Light, inviting living spaces flow seamlessly into a modern kitchen and well-appointed bedrooms, creating a truly move in ready home. Outdoors, the fully fenced backyard becomes your private retreat perfect for quiet mornings, weekend gatherings, or letting little ones and pets play freely. Ideally positioned just minutes from Ellisville, this home offers the best of both worlds: everyday convenience paired with a peaceful, welcoming setting. A thoughtfully updated property that feels instantly like home. Reach out to an agent for a private tour today!

15. 2025-11-25
    price $185,000
16. 2025-11-12
    listed $189,000 Active
17. 2012-09-24
    soldstatus $47,500
18. 2009-09-02
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $596 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$779/yr (+$65/mo · 130.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$1,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$240
• After-tax cash flow: $2,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,051
• Composite: 33.24/100
• National rank: #5520
• State rank: #40 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ellisville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #13645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellisville, MS
• City population: 12,287
• Population (ZIP): 12,287

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,800 people
• By 2030: 68,773 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 68,087 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 66,241 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 58,600 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 45,744 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 26.2% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+42.2 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.84%
• Current HPI: 142.2369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+262.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $174,000 HAAR
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $175,500 HAAR
• 2026-04-02 Listed $178,000 HAAR
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $185,000 HAAR
• 2025-11-12 Listed $189,000 HAAR
• 2012-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2009-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $596 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.