56 Holly Cir · Gulfport, MS 39501

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1970 8,276 sqft lot $77/sqft · 35% below area Est $123k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home for a Great Price!! This unit is tenant occupied and will require a 24hr notice to show.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 150 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $80,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$122,824) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-901/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $67k (16.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,735 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.83%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,824
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -34.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Holly Cir	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,036 (0%)	1mo	$80,000	$77	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-11,586
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $11,661
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39501

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $924/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $66,735

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-30	-5% $-52	+0% $-75	+5% $-98	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-119	+0% $-75	+5% $-31	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-55	base $-75	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4609 Michigan Ave Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	800	$825	$1.03	14d	1	0.79mi
4605 Michigan Ave Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	44d	1	0.81mi
3625 Meadowlark Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0	1315	$1,200	$0.91	14d	1	1.23mi
3712 37th Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,175	$1.03	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 100-char remark

   Show marketing remark (100 chars)

   Great home for a Great Price!! This unit is tenant occupied and will require a 24hr notice to show.

2. 2025-12-19
   listed $80,000 Active 100-char remark

   Show marketing remark (100 chars)

   Great home for a Great Price!! This unit is tenant occupied and will require a 24hr notice to show.

3. 2023-02-20
   historical
4. 2023-02-14
   listed $125,000 Active
5. 2011-09-23
   soldstatus
6. 2011-09-22
   soldstatus
7. 2011-08-01
   listed $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 50% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$924
• − Insurance: −$5,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable loss: −$2,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$481
• After-tax cash flow: $-420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 22,565
• Household income: $34,758
• Rent vs Own: 60.3% rent · 39.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.16%
• Current HPI: 208.998
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.49%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-12-19 Listed $80,000 MLSU
• 2023-02-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-02-14 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2011-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-09-22 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2011-08-01 Listed $50,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $924 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.