9720 E State Highway Dd · Strafford, MO 65757

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1982 5.00 ac lot $101/sqft · 45% below area Est $437k · 45% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 5-acre Strafford lot offers a 2,368-square-foot structure built in 1982, currently presented as a shell for a visionary project. The single-level residence features an open interior with exposed studs and missing drywall, essentially serving as a blank canvas for a complete transformation. While the plumbing and electrical systems are in working order, the property is being sold primarily for its land value and potential. The roof has seen recent work, and the former 2-car garage space provides flexibility to remain living area or return to its original use. This property currently lacks a septic system and is ready for an ambitious buyer to define its next chapter.

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: 2,368 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: 5-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Baseboard heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Electric baseboard heating; No central cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Strafford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#140 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Strafford R-VI (suburban): math 46% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #36 of 324 in MO (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Strafford Elem. (math 54% / reading 56%, grade C, #185 of 1,115 statewide, top 17%, 513 students, 38% FRL); Strafford Middle (math 44% / reading 51%, grade C-, #88 of 391 statewide, top 24%, 435 students, 35% FRL); Strafford High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 399 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,890 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.24%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,465
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -45.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-50,525
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-59,225
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65757

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,515/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $207,812

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-114	+0% $-182	+5% $-250	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-312	-5% $-247	+0% $-182	+5% $-117	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-121	base $-182	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $239,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $249,900 Active 679-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,515 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,327 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$812/yr (+$68/mo · 53.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,515
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$6,511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,563
• After-tax cash flow: $-617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Strafford R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2929640
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,471
• Composite: 42.99/100
• National rank: #3107
• State rank: #36 of 324 in MO

Livability — Strafford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #7990

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,030

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.97%
• Current HPI: 224.3222
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $239,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-27 Listed $249,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,515 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.