12971 Daniel Springs Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$284,555

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · Land · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to one of the community’s most sought-after floorplans. This impressive one-story, four-bedroom, two-bathroom residence combines modern style with an open, functional layout designed for everyday living and effortless entertaining. At the heart of the home, the kitchen truly stands out with a massive island and a generous peninsula, offering unmatched workspace, storage, and versatility. Whether you’re cooking, gathering, or hosting, this dream kitchen elevates every moment. The private primary suite offers a spacious retreat featuring a well-appointed bathroom with dual sinks and an expansive walk-in closet. Throughout the home, sleek matte black fixtures and reces

Key facts

• Large covered patio
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WELL-APPOINTED BATHROOM
• EXPANSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Lead Association Management; Annual association fee of $800 (covers common areas); Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Fence; Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 13x13; Bedroom (First floor) — 11x10; Bedroom (First floor) — 11x10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $284,555 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,231.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($82/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $219,562 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,231
• List price: $284,555
• Delta: 7.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $139,090
• Equity at exit: $238,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $398,726
• Equity at exit: $515,286

Cash invested: $74,265 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,391
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,911/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $265,231

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $82	+0% $7	+5% $-68	+10% $-143
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-80	+0% $7	+5% $94	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $74	base $7	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,308
• Closing costs: $7,957
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40700 Pessi Rd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,100	$1.69	45d	1	0.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $284,555 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,555 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,555 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,555 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,555 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,555 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $284,555 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $284,555 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $284,555 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,555 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,555 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,555 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-04-22
    listed $284,555 Active 918-char remark
14. 2026-04-21
    historical
15. 2026-03-27
    price $284,555
16. 2026-02-19
    listed $282,990 Active
17. 2026-02-18
    historical
18. 2025-12-17
    listed $284,555 Active
19. 2025-11-18
    listed $282,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,911 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,207 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,296/yr (+$275/mo · 172.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,857
• − Property taxes: −$1,911
• − Insurance: −$1,326
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$7,716
• Taxable loss: −$4,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $284,555 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $284,555 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $282,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $284,555 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Listed $282,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,911 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.