402 Ironton Ave · Lubbock, TX 79416

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,531 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1981 8,250 sqft lot $121/sqft · 11% below area Est $208k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home has wonderful curb appeal. The property offers a spacious living room, fireplace, and 2 car garage. Bedrooms and bathrooms are roomy making the home perfect for a family or roommates. With a sizable backyard there is plenty of space for gatherings and furry friends. The back patio is perfect for BBQs and entertaining! This home has so many amazing features and is located in the desirable Frenship ISD! Come take a look TODAY before it's gone!

Key facts

• Great location
• Cozy fireplace
• Sizeable backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• SIZEABLE BACKYARD
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway; On-street parking; Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Phone available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard; Front yard; Landscaped; Wood fencing; Fenced yard; Paved road frontage; City street frontage; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-standing range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storage; Walk-in closets; Window coverings; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,672 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,023
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -8.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6116 10th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+7%)	14mo	$195,000	$119	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-40,212
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-51,381
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,101/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,758

Max offer price $159,665

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-91	+0% $-143	+5% $-195	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-205	+0% $-143	+5% $-81	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-96	base $-143	+0.5pp $-191	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Kirby Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$695	$0.39	45d	1	0.17mi
6101 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,375	$1.11	15d	1	0.21mi
6111 10th Dr Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1917	$1,649	$0.86	23d	1	0.27mi
310 Homestead Ave Unit 4 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1783	$1,795	$1.01	15d	1	0.29mi
6106 9th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1361	$1,350	$0.99	45d	1	0.30mi
310 Homestead Ave Unit 12 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1571	$1,595	$1.02	15d	1	0.30mi
310 Homestead Ave Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1571	$1,595	$1.02	46d	1	0.30mi
310 Homestead Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1783	$1,995	$1.12	45d	1	0.30mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,350	$1.10	45d	1	0.32mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,375	$1.12	23d	1	0.32mi
5863 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,325	$1.19	23d	1	0.38mi
221 Grover Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,295	$1.09	15d	1	0.42mi
6336 9th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	0.42mi
5846 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,145	$0.99	23d	1	0.47mi
6504 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	46d	1	0.48mi
5839 7th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,050	$0.91	45d	1	0.50mi
1107 Ironton Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	45d	1	0.51mi
5834 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,125	$0.94	23d	1	0.51mi
5833 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,125	$0.97	23d	1	0.52mi
6505 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,600	$0.98	15d	1	0.52mi
6513 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,750	$1.02	45d	1	0.55mi
1106 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,350	$1.06	23d	1	0.58mi
6521 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,795	$0.96	45d	1	0.58mi
204 Genoa Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	15d	1	0.59mi
6106 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	45d	1	0.76mi
1003 Oshkosh Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	15d	1	0.76mi
6724 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	45d	1	0.78mi
6806 4th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,550	$0.95	45d	1	0.83mi
6806 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	0.83mi
504 N Juneau Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1809	$1,699	$0.94	15d	1	0.85mi
5713 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,600	$1.07	15d	1	0.87mi
6813 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,550	$1.07	23d	1	0.91mi
518 N Juneau Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,625	$0.89	15d	1	0.92mi
5539 Auburn St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,325	$1.20	45d	1	0.99mi
5741 Duke St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1693	$1,699	$1.00	45d	1	1.04mi
5522 13th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	15d	1	1.07mi
5914 Erskine St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	1.08mi
601 Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1570	$1,400	$0.89	23d	1	1.11mi
5501 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,800	$0.96	23d	1	1.12mi
5603 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,000	$1.28	15d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $184,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $184,900 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    status Active 354-char remark
18. 2026-05-01
    historical 354-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    listed $189,900 Active 354-char remark
20. 2022-07-18
    soldstatus Closed 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home has wonderful curb appeal. The property offers a spacious living room, fireplace, and 2 car garage. Bedrooms and bathrooms are roomy making the home perfect for a family or roommates. With a sizable backyard there is plenty of space for gatherings and furry friends. The back patio is perfect for BBQs and entertaining! This home has so many amazing features and is located in the desirable Frenship ISD! Come take a look TODAY before it's gone!

21. 2022-07-18
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home has wonderful curb appeal. The property offers a spacious living room, fireplace, and 2 car garage. Bedrooms and bathrooms are roomy making the home perfect for a family or roommates. With a sizable backyard there is plenty of space for gatherings and furry friends. The back patio is perfect for BBQs and entertaining! This home has so many amazing features and is located in the desirable Frenship ISD! Come take a look TODAY before it's gone!

22. 2022-06-17
    status Pending 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home has wonderful curb appeal. The property offers a spacious living room, fireplace, and 2 car garage. Bedrooms and bathrooms are roomy making the home perfect for a family or roommates. With a sizable backyard there is plenty of space for gatherings and furry friends. The back patio is perfect for BBQs and entertaining! This home has so many amazing features and is located in the desirable Frenship ISD! Come take a look TODAY before it's gone!

23. 2022-06-13
    status Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home has wonderful curb appeal. The property offers a spacious living room, fireplace, and 2 car garage. Bedrooms and bathrooms are roomy making the home perfect for a family or roommates. With a sizable backyard there is plenty of space for gatherings and furry friends. The back patio is perfect for BBQs and entertaining! This home has so many amazing features and is located in the desirable Frenship ISD! Come take a look TODAY before it's gone!

24. 2022-06-06
    status Pending 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home has wonderful curb appeal. The property offers a spacious living room, fireplace, and 2 car garage. Bedrooms and bathrooms are roomy making the home perfect for a family or roommates. With a sizable backyard there is plenty of space for gatherings and furry friends. The back patio is perfect for BBQs and entertaining! This home has so many amazing features and is located in the desirable Frenship ISD! Come take a look TODAY before it's gone!

25. 2022-06-02
    status Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home has wonderful curb appeal. The property offers a spacious living room, fireplace, and 2 car garage. Bedrooms and bathrooms are roomy making the home perfect for a family or roommates. With a sizable backyard there is plenty of space for gatherings and furry friends. The back patio is perfect for BBQs and entertaining! This home has so many amazing features and is located in the desirable Frenship ISD! Come take a look TODAY before it's gone!

26. 2022-05-04
    historical 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home has wonderful curb appeal. The property offers a spacious living room, fireplace, and 2 car garage. Bedrooms and bathrooms are roomy making the home perfect for a family or roommates. With a sizable backyard there is plenty of space for gatherings and furry friends. The back patio is perfect for BBQs and entertaining! This home has so many amazing features and is located in the desirable Frenship ISD! Come take a look TODAY before it's gone!

27. 2022-04-30
    listed $175,000 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home has wonderful curb appeal. The property offers a spacious living room, fireplace, and 2 car garage. Bedrooms and bathrooms are roomy making the home perfect for a family or roommates. With a sizable backyard there is plenty of space for gatherings and furry friends. The back patio is perfect for BBQs and entertaining! This home has so many amazing features and is located in the desirable Frenship ISD! Come take a look TODAY before it's gone!

28. 2021-08-10
    listed $171,000
29. 2017-06-01
    soldstatus
30. 2017-06-01
    soldstatus
31. 2017-04-07
    listed $125,000
32. 2008-03-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,101 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,101 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$4,101
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$4,869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $-546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+47.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $184,900 LARMLS
• 2022-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-18 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2022-06-17 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-06-13 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2022-06-06 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-06-02 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2022-05-04 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2022-04-30 Listed $175,000 LARMLS
• 2021-08-10 Listed $171,000 LARMLS
• 2017-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-01 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-04-07 Listed $125,000 LARMLS
• 2008-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,101 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.