2765 Hidden Springs Cir #63 · Placerville, CA 95667

$109,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured · 153 Days on market

Built 1977 1,721 sqft lot Est $117k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE IMPROVEMENT -- Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable 55+ community, offering comfort and easy living. The home features a spacious living room, cozy family room, and bright dining area. The kitchen includes a stove, oven, dishwasher, refrigerator, and convenient dining bar. Stay warm with the living room pellet stove while natural light fills the space through sliding glass doors. Enjoy relaxing on the private deck or tending to your own flower garden. With a new roof already installed, this home is move-in ready. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, a movie theater, and public transportation.

Key facts

• Cozy family room
• Pellet stove
• Bright dining area

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• COZY FAMILY ROOM
• BRIGHT DINING AREA
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• DINING BAR
• PELLET STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a land-lease community; Lot features: see remarks
• Financial info: Land lease required (amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Guest parking available; No garage
• Utilities: Propane; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer; Public water (water district)
• Home design: Manufactured in park (triple wide); Original condition; Built in 1977
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Composition roof; Golden West manufacturer/make
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Carport awning; Fenced yard; Attached deck; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing refrigerator; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Double oven; Dishwasher; Pantry cabinet; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Sunken tub; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans; Pellet stove; Wood stove; Propane heating; Insulated water heater; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Dual-pane partial windows with coverings; Porch steps with railing; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookups; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.8% in Placerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#553 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Placerville Union Elementary (town): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #248 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.78%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,800
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2768 Hidden Springs Cir	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	1mo	$110,000	$76	81
2874 Hidden Springs Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	1mo	$75,000	$54	77
2854 Hidden Springs Cir	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,464 (-8%)	8mo	$156,900	$107	74
2794 Hidden Springs Cir #15a	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	5mo	$80,000	$56	73
2923 Glenwood Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	13mo	$89,000	$62	70
2799 Hidden Springs Cir	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	21mo	$105,000	$73	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $49,667
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $165,793
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95667

• Rents YoY: 12.5%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3010 Traci Ct Placerville, CA	2.0	2.0	1195	$2,475	$2.07	12d	1	1.22mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $9,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,266
• After-tax cash flow: $8,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placerville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0630780
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $54,662
• Composite: 32.8/100
• National rank: #5626
• State rank: #248 of 517 in CA

Livability — Placerville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #553
• US rank: #18366

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Placerville, CA
• County: El Dorado County · 144,198 people
• City population: 36,830
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,830
• Household income: $89,938
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -480.50%
• Current HPI: 262.6014
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.48%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B