627 Ferguson Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$105,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1946 8,250 sqft lot Est $102k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW!  ATTENTION INVESTORS AND DEAL LOVERS!  MOVE FAST; THIS DEAL WILL NOT LAST LONG!  Very nicely updated 3 bedroom 1 bath home. Vinyl Siding, Vinyl Windows, Strong Roof, Updated electrical panel, water heater, and HVAC System with newly added condensing unit cage! Completely Updated Kitchen! VERY minor amount of work needed here!!! Put the finishes on this one and MAKE IT YOUR OWN  This home is LOADED with potential. Seller's Disclosure is not available.  Special Sale Contract (form #2043) required.

Key facts

• Water heater
• Vinyl siding
• Hvac system

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• WATER HEATER
• HVAC SYSTEM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area listed as 900 (source: public records); Lot size approximately 0.1894 acres (source: public records)
• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; House with one level; Private ownership; Facing not specified
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level lot; City street frontage; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heat; Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Forced air electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-206/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (2.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (2.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 8.9% in Ferguson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ferguson Middle (math 3% / reading 14%, grade F, #376 of 391 statewide, top 96%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 9948% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,966 (2.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.71%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
247 S Hartnett Ave Unit 1/2	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	902 (+0%)	2mo	$75,000	$83	88
296 Meadowcrest Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	960 (+7%)	2mo	$109,900	$114	80
227 Meadowcrest Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	960 (+7%)	3mo	$129,900	$135	76
277 Dashwood Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	960 (+7%)	2mo	$74,900	$78	76
299 Dashwood Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	960 (+7%)	4mo	$114,000	$119	71
1006 Highmont Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0	960 (+7%)	4mo	$109,900	$114	70
941 Highmont Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-7%)	3mo	$105,900	$126	66
914 Highmont Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-9%)	2mo	$92,400	$113	66
6188 Dupree Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5	972 (+8%)	4mo	$75,000	$77	60
721 Beardsley Ct	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	820 (-9%)	4mo	$89,900	$110	60
125 Forestwood Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+15%)	3mo	$77,900	$75	48
6016 Dupree Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (+13%)	3mo	$34,900	$34	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-10,761
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $22,544
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,345 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,367

Max offer price $101,966

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $13	+0% $-17	+5% $-47	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-70	+0% $-17	+5% $36	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $10	base $-17	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	25d	1	0.11mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	16d	1	0.17mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	45d	1	0.20mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	45d	1	0.31mi
35 S Barat Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	0d	1	0.35mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,025	$1.17	0d	1	0.35mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	45d	1	0.42mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	0d	1	0.44mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	9d	1	0.44mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	25d	1	0.46mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	45d	1	0.47mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.49mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	25d	1	0.50mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	45d	1	0.56mi
7733 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	656	$1,090	$1.66	25d	1	0.68mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	9d	1	0.69mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	19d	1	0.70mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	14d	1	0.72mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	45d	1	0.75mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	0d	1	0.79mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	45d	1	0.79mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	45d	1	0.80mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	18d	1	0.80mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	45d	1	0.84mi
801 Thomas Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	45d	1	0.86mi
5925 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	951	$1,200	$1.26	45d	1	0.89mi
5900 Sheriton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,050	$1.22	25d	1	0.90mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	45d	1	0.92mi
204 Hawkesbury Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	849	$1,250	$1.47	6d	1	0.94mi
204 Hawkesbury Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	849	$1,250	$1.47	0d	1	0.94mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 30B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	25d	1	0.95mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 34C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	45d	1	0.95mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	45d	1	0.97mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	45d	1	0.98mi
224 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$995	$1.06	0d	1	1.00mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	45d	1	1.01mi
806 Marvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	726	$1,100	$1.52	45d	1	1.01mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	45d	1	1.03mi
7816 Dartmoor Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	45d	1	1.04mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	25d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $105,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$311/yr (+$26/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$5,644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$415
• After-tax cash flow: $209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+475.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $105,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-12 Rental Removed $1,045 BUILDIUM
• 2025-08-13 Listed for Rent $1,045 BUILDIUM
• 2019-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $373,700 Public Records
• 2019-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records
• 2019-05-31 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-14 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-03 Listed $34,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-17 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-14 Listed $62,250 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $54,124 Public Records
• 2002-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $18,250 Public Records
• 1979-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $708 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.