14750 Road 190 · Poplar-Cotton Center, CA 93257

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1950 10,679 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in Poplar. Property features two separate structures on one lot. Main home is approximately 1 bed, 1 bath. Second unit is believed to be 2 bed, 1 bath, buyer to verify. Both units are currently occupied. Property is being sold as-is with tenants in place. Seller will not deliver vacant possession. Major fixer with significant deferred maintenance. Cash or hard money strongly recommended. Great opportunity for investors looking for a value-add project. Do not disturb occupants. Drive-by only. All inquiries and showings through listing agent. Property consists of two structures on one lot. Public records reflect one unit only. Second unit may be non-permitted, buyer to ve

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.25 acres; Irregular lot shape

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Built in (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Other roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,753
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $17,642
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93257

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $759/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,047

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,026 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$267/yr (+$22/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$759
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$92
• After-tax cash flow: $2,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Poplar-Cotton Center

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar-Cotton Center, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• City population: 1,241
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,467
• Household income: $59,704
• Rent vs Own: 44.4% rent · 55.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3028.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 23% White 21% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 52% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -375.52%
• Current HPI: 362.656
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.07%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $159,000 TCMLS

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $759 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.