Hayden Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$359,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,809 sqft · SingleFamily · 256 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting, two-story Hayden home offers plenty of flex space with bright and airy rooms. Upon entering this home, you are greeted with the stairway to your second floor, as well as your convenient downstairs powder bathroom and entry to your private study room. You can opt to turn the study room into a bedroom if you need extra space for guests. Traveling down the foyer, you will be captivated by the open-concept layout that flows from the two-story family room to the inviting dining space and spacious kitchen. This area boasts a ton of options such as an appealing fireplace for your family room, and an extra sink in your kitchen to serve as a wetbar! This layout is perfect for entertaining gatherings of any size. Your kitchen also comes with attractive features like sleek granite countertops, ceramic tile backsplash, industry-leading appliances, and a kitchen island! Right off the kitchen is entry to your walk-in utility and your two-car garage. You can even add on extra space, turning your garage into a two-and a half car or three-car garage! For those that love spending quality time with family outdoors, the Hayden plan gives you the ability to include a sizable covered patio in your backyard. Back inside, you are met with your deluxe master retreat featuring a huge walk-in closet and a divine master bathroom. Your master bathroom features dual vanities, a bathtub and a stand alone shower that you can transform into a super shower if you desire. Head upstairs where. ..

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Private study room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• TWO-STORY FAMILY ROOM
• INVITING DINING SPACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $359,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $385,840.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $360k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-763 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,950 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.47%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,840
• List price: $359,990
• Delta: -6.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3011 Matador Ranch Trl	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,756 (-2%)	4mo	$379,990	$138	87
3007 Matador Ranch Trl	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,900 (+3%)	1mo	$379,990	$131	87
18623 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.18mi	4/3.5	2,748 (-2%)	0mo	$395,495	$144	84
18610 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.19mi	4/3.5	2,735 (-3%)	2mo	$414,690	$152	81
2907 Laguna Madre Pl	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,735 (-3%)	1mo	$382,790	$140	80
18634 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.23mi	4/3.5	2,735 (-3%)	3mo	$412,430	$151	78
3003 Matador Ranch Trl	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,996 (+7%)	4mo	$404,990	$135	78
18702 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,735 (-3%)	4mo	$391,990	$143	77
18722 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,735 (-3%)	4mo	$402,039	$147	76
18814 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,551 (-9%)	4mo	$384,990	$151	64
3623 Shore Shadows Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,988 (+6%)	4mo	$580,000	$194	53
18408 Old Galley Way	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,549 (-9%)	3mo	$510,000	$200	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-114,709
• Equity at exit: $57,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-176,758
• Equity at exit: $33,360

Cash invested: $108,035 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 91 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $370,570 ($139/sqft)
• Median days on market: 234 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1919
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$482 /mo · $5,788/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,375

Max offer price $275,440

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-496	-5% $-630	+0% $-763	+5% $-896	+10% $-1,030
Rent	-10% $-953	-5% $-858	+0% $-763	+5% $-668	+10% $-573
Rate	-1.0pp $-569	-0.5pp $-665	base $-763	+0.5pp $-863	+1.0pp $-965

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,460
• Closing costs: $11,575
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	165d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $359,990 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $359,990 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $359,990 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $359,990 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $359,990 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $359,990 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $359,990 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $359,990 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $359,990 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $359,990 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $359,990 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $359,990 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $359,990 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $359,990 Active 242 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $359,990 Active 241 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $359,990 Active 240 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $359,990 Active 239 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $359,990 Active 238 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $359,990 Active 237 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $359,990 Active 236 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $359,990 Active 235 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $359,990 Active 234 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $359,990 Active 233 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $359,990 Active 232 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $359,990 Active 231 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $359,990 Active 230 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $359,990 Active 229 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $359,990 Active 228 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $359,990 Active 227 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $359,990 Active 226 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $359,990 Active 225 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $359,990 Active 224 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $359,990 Active 223 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $359,990 Active 222 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 221 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 220 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $359,990 Active 219 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $359,990 Active 218 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $359,990 Active 217 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $359,990 Active 216 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $359,990 Active 215 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $359,990 Active 214 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $359,990 Active 213 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $359,990 Active 212 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $359,990 Active 211 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $359,990 Active 210 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $359,990 Active 209 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $359,990 Active 208 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $359,990 Active 207 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $359,990 Active 206 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,613
• − Property taxes: −$5,788
• − Insurance: −$1,929
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − Depreciation: −$11,224
• Taxable loss: −$16,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,904
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story Hayden home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $364,990 Zillow