1832 Smokehouse Rd · Granbury, TX 76049

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · Manufactured public records · 363 Days on market

Built 1979 9,583 sqft lot $102/sqft · 21% below area Est $253k · 21% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Corner Lot perfect fixer upper.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.93%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,403
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -21.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
646 Whisperview Cir	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,960 (+0%)	2mo	$189,900	$97	78
622 Branding Iron Trl	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (+9%)	12mo	$239,900	$113	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,080
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $46,851
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,090 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,848/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $425	+0% $368	+5% $312	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $286	+0% $368	+5% $451	+10% $534
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $419	base $368	+0.5pp $317	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
807 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	45d	1	0.16mi
805 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	45d	1	0.17mi
809 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	45d	1	0.18mi
811 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	45d	1	0.18mi
1713 Bronco Rd Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1520	$1,800	$1.18	8d	1	0.20mi
1708 Rockview Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	2334	$2,700	$1.16	18d	1	0.92mi
1017 Meadowlark Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,300	$1.33	14d	1	0.94mi
1111 Dove Hollow Rd Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1789	$2,399	$1.34	45d	1	1.01mi
3142 Shady Grove Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,950	$1.34	25d	1	1.10mi
209 Johnson St Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	2622	$3,000	$1.14	45d	1	1.21mi
800 Chanel Dr Granbury, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,948	$1.89	0d	11	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 363 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 362 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 360 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 356 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 354 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 350 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 349 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 348 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 347 DOM
12. 2025-11-17
    price $199,000 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    Corner Lot perfect fixer upper.

13. 2025-06-18
    listed $205,000 Active 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    Corner Lot perfect fixer upper.

14. 2025-02-15
    soldstatus Closed 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This charming 3 bed, 2 bath brick home nestled on a corner lot offers both convenience and recreation! Enjoy the cozy warmth of a wood-burning stove and cool off in the community pool on hot summer days. With a 1-car garage, this home provides ample space. Located in a desirable community with a boat ramp, you'll have endless opportunities for fun. Plus, its prime location near shopping centers ensures easy access to everyday needs. Perfect for families, first-time homebuyers, or anyone looking for a comfortable and convenient lifestyle! Book your showing today!

15. 2025-02-14
    soldstatus
16. 2025-01-17
    status Pending 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This charming 3 bed, 2 bath brick home nestled on a corner lot offers both convenience and recreation! Enjoy the cozy warmth of a wood-burning stove and cool off in the community pool on hot summer days. With a 1-car garage, this home provides ample space. Located in a desirable community with a boat ramp, you'll have endless opportunities for fun. Plus, its prime location near shopping centers ensures easy access to everyday needs. Perfect for families, first-time homebuyers, or anyone looking for a comfortable and convenient lifestyle! Book your showing today!

17. 2024-12-18
    historical $1,750
18. 2024-11-06
    listed $1,750
19. 2024-11-04
    listed $185,000 Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This charming 3 bed, 2 bath brick home nestled on a corner lot offers both convenience and recreation! Enjoy the cozy warmth of a wood-burning stove and cool off in the community pool on hot summer days. With a 1-car garage, this home provides ample space. Located in a desirable community with a boat ramp, you'll have endless opportunities for fun. Plus, its prime location near shopping centers ensures easy access to everyday needs. Perfect for families, first-time homebuyers, or anyone looking for a comfortable and convenient lifestyle! Book your showing today!

20. 2024-08-19
    soldstatus
21. 2024-05-03
    historical $1,750
22. 2024-05-02
    historical $1,750
23. 2024-05-01
    listed $1,750
24. 2024-04-08
    listed $1,750
25. 2024-01-20
    historical
26. 2024-01-13
    historical
27. 2024-01-09
    listed
28. 2024-01-02
    historical
29. 2023-09-07
    listed
30. 2023-09-06
    listed
31. 2022-02-17
    soldstatus
32. 2021-10-08
    historical
33. 2021-09-08
    price $180,000
34. 2021-07-09
    listed $199,000 Active
35. 2021-07-09
    soldstatus
36. 2018-10-04
    historical
37. 2018-08-03
    status Active
38. 2018-07-26
    historical Active Option Contract
39. 2018-07-11
    listed $125,000 Active
40. 2006-05-10
    soldstatus
41. 2005-04-18
    soldstatus
42. 1980-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,848 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,794/yr (+$150/mo · 97.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,848
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,262
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$303
• After-tax cash flow: $4,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+59.2% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-12-18 Rental Removed $1,750 RENT.
• 2024-11-06 Listed for Rent $1,750 RENT.
• 2024-11-04 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-03 Rental Removed $1,750 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-02 Rental Removed $1,750 RENT.
• 2024-05-01 Listed for Rent $1,750 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-08 Listed for Rent $1,750 RENT.
• 2024-01-20 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-13 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2024-01-09 Listed for Rent — RENT.
• 2024-01-02 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2023-09-07 Listed for Rent — APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-06 Listed for Rent — RENT.
• 2022-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-09-08 Price Changed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2021-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-09 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2018-10-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-08-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2018-07-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-07-11 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2006-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1980-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,848 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.